NALP’s Fuzzy Definition of ‘JD Advantage’…

…Is largely the same as the ABA’s, but that’s not the point, which is that you should read:

NALP’s Fuzzy Definition of ‘JD Advantage’

on The American Lawyer. It’s probably the first time I’ve written on this curious topic.

I don’t have any music for you as I’m beating a virus today that’s hampering my productivity. Since my organs haven’t liquified yet, I’m ruling out Ebola.

Peace.

NYT Says People Who Use BLS Inflation Data Are Conspiracy Theorists

Do not adjust your TV set. You did not leap into a parallel universe, and I am not suddenly sporting an evil Van Dyke. After enlightening us on how the Labor Department tracks inflation in higher education costs, the Timesresident champion of the elusive average college graduate, David Leonhardt, smugly compared anyone who uses government inflation data in good faith to conspiracy theorists like ShadowStats who think the government is cynically manipulating cost data.

(I’m using an image here instead of a block quote to show you I’m not kidding.)

(I’m using an image here instead of a block quote to prove I’m not making this up.)

One hastens to point out to Leonhardt that using the government’s published indexes, notwithstanding their flaws, to make an argument is not the same as (a) claiming the government is lying, or (b) cooking one’s own measurements based on repudiated methodologies to sell Web site subscriptions at fixed nominal prices. (For the record, I use Education Department data on college costs, though that’s probably problematic as well.)

So what prompted Leonhardt’s self-satisfied editorialization?

Answer: He discovered that until 2003, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracked college tuition inflation by their stated prices and not their “net tuition” costs, which the bureau now largely tracks. It’s an interesting finding, but it deserved to be raised more professionally—and with better reasoning.

Leonhardt’s argument is that reporting on college tuition costs based on BLS data is “exaggerated” and “deeply misleading” because those data exclude financial aid discounts. He adds that only rich families pay sticker price and then compares college costs to retailers (e.g. Joseph A. Banks) that continuously discount their prices, making their sticker prices meaningless. Hence, he boasts that he’s knocked away yet another (sic) pillar people use to criticize the value of college education.

So what’s the problem here? One, the Joseph A. Banks comparison doesn’t work at all. Retailers that engage in psychological discounting in fact discount their prices—for everyone. They do not ask customers what their annual household incomes are and then charge them (in)appropriately. Colleges really do charge some people sticker price, so the sticker prices aren’t fictitious. Leonhardt hedges this fact by telling us this doesn’t matter because, allegedly, only rich families are charged full price.

The response, my second point, is if this is true so what? What are they paying more money for? Has the quality of education increased for people who pay sticker price? If you’re going to say that these students are paying for the privilege of learning with subsidized, smart people, then you’re going to have to prove that they actually learn more as a result. I’m also going to ask you to estimate when the marginal benefit of adding one more smart, subsidized student to an incoming class outweighs the additional cost to a given student paying full tuition. Note also that “graduating from college while well off” does not in fact ensure that a graduate will be well off going forward.

Finally, Joseph A. Banks’ prices are transparent once customers walk in, see the sticker, and do the math. Colleges, by contrast, advertise a *cough* *garble* *cough* percent-off sale. If this isn’t “real” inflation, why can’t families know up front what they will be charged?

I agree that the BLS should track inflation based on what people pay for goods and services holding the quality of those goods and services constant. However, the best Leonhardt can say about his discovery is that the composition of household spending on college has changed such that some students are asked to pay much more than they would have in the past so that other students can pay about what they would have in the past. If anything, this is a reason to track sticker price inflation, not ignore it.

Leave it to The New York Times to publish a blogger who trolls critics for using government data and then defines inflation away. Maybe Yale should give him an honorary B.S. in applied sophistry.

The Law Apprenticeship Scam

“It’s a cruel hoax. It’s such a waste of time for someone to spend three years in this program but not have anything at the end.”

So says Robert E. Glenn, president of the Virginia Board of Bar Examiners. No, Glenn wasn’t talking about Liberty University’s 34.4 percent employment rate in full-time, long-term, bar-passage-required jobs for its class of 2013, which had an average debt level of $81,045 (only!). Rather he was referring to the low bar-passage rates of Virginia’s law readers, who along with their peers in other states are the subject of a New York Times article, “The Lawyer’s Apprentice.”

Citing data from the National Conference of Bar Examiners, which the Times deserves credit for researching, we learn that only 28 percent of apprentices passed the bar versus 73 percent of ABA law school graduates. This fact prompts the ABA’s Barry Courrier to declare:

“The A.B.A. takes the position that the most appropriate process for becoming a lawyer should include obtaining a J.D. degree from a law school approved by the A.B.A. and passing a bar examination,”

I find this response disappointing for a few reasons: One, even if these statistics are for first-time test-takers only, a 73 percent pass rate is lousy. Law schools should be held to higher standards for what they charge students.

Two, the article appears to tacitly accept the ABA’s position that we can’t have good lawyers without many years of law school (and probably college too). The elephant in this room is selection bias. The reason people go to law school rather than these apprenticeship programs is that law schools broker jobs to people who already do well on standardized tests, to wit, the LSAT. Certainly in the age of PAYE, someone who can crush the LSAT has much better odds of finding a good law job by going to law school than trying to find a lawyer who will train him or her. If anything, law school is a more reliable path to qualifying for the bar exam. Indeed, the article acknowledges that “the lack of class rankings put clerkships with judges and plum gigs at big firms out of reach” for law readers.

If you’re wondering why people who don’t do well on the LSAT go to law school instead of these programs, I give three responses. One, they aren’t widely known and have no advertising. Two, many law students still buy into the versatile JD myth. Three, the largest proportion of people opting out of law school are people who don’t do amazingly on the LSAT anyway. So there. (The Times says these programs are “underpopulated,” but given the effort the would-be apprentices must go through to get established, one might think the problem is that there really isn’t much demand for new lawyers.)

I acknowledge that many of the apprentices interviewed in the article are sincere in their desire to avoid debt and only want to do small practice work. If anything, bar authorities should make it easier for people to choose that route. Instead they offer a post hoc rationalization for credentialism in legal education.

Florida Legal Sector Peaks Higher, Troughs Lower Than Country’s

The Tampa Bay Times tells us, “Florida’s Swollen Ranks of Lawyers Scrap for Piece of a Shrinking Legal Pie“—a fair assessment.

As to whether there are too many lawyers as the article says, well, obviously there are as many lawyers as the state can employ at any given time. Whether the state (and the country) produces too many law graduates and licenses more attorneys than can be absorbed is a different matter. I sympathize with attorneys trying to make a living, but I am enjoined from complaining if clients are charged less as a result.

Here’s the relevant line:

Almost half of the lawyers who responded to a Florida Bar survey last year cited “too many attorneys” as the most serious problem facing the legal profession today. That exceeded “difficult economic times” and “poor public perception,” which many blamed in part on relentless TV advertising, such as that by big personal injury firms.

Surveys are important sources of information, but just because lawyers believe something doesn’t make it true. It’s difficult to separate the extent to which the “difficult economic times” and the “too many attorneys” cause lawyer underemployment. In fact, Florida’s legal sector peaked higher and troughed harder than the rest of the southeast and the country.

Real Legal Services (Fla. edition)

(Source: BEA, author’s calcs.)

Although, the surveyed lawyers have a point: It’s also true, as the article points out, that the number of law schools in Florida needlessly doubled over the last 15 years or so. Unhelpfully, the article publishes law schools’ unemployment rates rather than my preference: percent employed in bar-passage-required jobs, full-time/long-term excluding law-school-funded jobs. Here’re Florida’s law schools’ 2013 results:

  • Florida State – 69.6%
  • University of Florida – 66.4%
  • Stetson – 62.0%
  • University of Miami – 60.7%
  • Nova Southeastern – 60.5%
  • Florida International – 59.6%
  • Thomas – 47.8%
  • Barry – 39.8%
  • Florida A&M – 38.5%
  • Ave Maria – 34.6%
  • Florida Coastal – 30.8%
  • Average Florida Law School – 51.8%
  • Southeast BEA Region Average Law School (Excl. Fla.) – 57.3%
  • Average U.S.A. Law School (Excl. P.R., Fla.) – 56.1%

In general, Florida’s law schools are doing worse than the regional and national averages. Perhaps you could call it the Florida Coastal effect. I’m sure someone with more time on their hands than I could write a paper on the impact for-profit law schools have on state employment outcomes and state legal industries.

What surprises me, though, are the attorney counts stated in the article: They’re much higher than the number of active and resident attorneys Florida bar authorities report to the ABA.

Since 2000, the number of licensed attorneys has swollen from 60,900 to 96,511. … Florida had 27,000 licensed attorneys in 1980. Within 20 years, the number had more than doubled.

According to the ABA, in 2000, there were 49,139 active and resident lawyers in Florida, and 68,464 in 2013. I don’t have numbers for 1980, but in 1989, Florida had only 33,251 active and resident lawyers. Anyway, I get 39 percent growth since 2000, not the 58 percent the article implies.

Despite these bleak facts, as always we can rely on the deans to tell us to hail the JD Advantage.

So what’s the advice for those considering law school or soon to graduate? Until demand better meets supply, [LeRoy] Pernell of Florida A&M’s law school predicts that many new lawyers will have to use their education in “nontraditional ways.” Among them: working for businesses instead of law firms.

Some could also wind up in jobs that don’t require a law degree. …

[Christopher] Pietruszkiewicz, Stetson’s dean, advises interning, then working in a public defender, state attorney or U.S. Attorney’s Office.

Hopefully the message for applicants is clear: There are better alternatives than law school in Florida.

Inside the (Alaska) Law School Scam?

Sorry, that should be “the Alaska Law School, In God We Trust,” which appears to have been founded by an attorney in Palm Springs, Calif.

If you throw http://www.thealaskalawschool.com into your browser you’ll be treated to what’s either a scam, a transparent hoax, or a genuine law school whose Web site does not leave readers believing that it’s sincere. What you will find for sure, though, is something that concerned the Alaska Bar Association so much that its bar counsel asked the ABA Section of Legal Education if it was legit (pdf). From where I’m sitting, it appears the Alaska Law School, In God We Trust is misrepresenting its application for ABA accreditation and its students’ eligibility for federal loan dollars.

Speaking of which, tuition for in-state students will be $43,000, including books. What a deal!

01 The Alaska Law School, In God We Trust

If the Alaska Law School, In God We Trust is real, however, incoming law students will be treated to a unique learning environment: two boats the school received as an anonymous donation!

02 The Alaska Law School, In God We Trust

Who doesn’t want to attend a law school featuring a global law library of Alexandrian proportions? (Don’t knock it. These folks know their ancient history.)

I think the rest speaks for itself.

No Bubble, Just Rock!!! Vol. 9: 2000 Edition

Mellow is the Bubble
It’s been a slow week ’round LSTB-ville-burg-polis, so I reckon you deserved some relief from most things education-related. However, since the June LSATs fell to a record low going back to 2000, I figured I’d blow the dust off the ol’ CD books and see what good stuff I wish I was listening to back then but probably wasn’t.

We have the Compulsive Gamblers’ “Two Thieves.”

…And “Bicycles,” by the Clientele. The real treat is the whistling at the end, provided by me. It was my unsolicited contribution to the performance. It was said that two guys drove from Mexico up to Brooklyn just to see this show. I cherish the Clientele, but I don’t know if I could punish myself with that kind of a road trip just to see them. Maybe when I was 19.

That is all. Peace.

LSAT Tea-Leaf Reading: June 2014 Edition

Info on the June 2014 LSAT is in; 21,802 people sat for the exam, a record low going back to June 2000, when you were listening to … wait for it … Brittney Spears’ Oops…I Did It Again. (Yes, you are that old.) The rate of decline in test takers accelerated this year to -9.1 percent. It’s also the largest absolute decline (-2,195) since June 2011 (-6,161).

No. LSAT Takers, 4-Testing Period Moving Sum

The four-testing-period moving sum has fallen to 103,337, reversing the trend upward last February and achieving a new record low going back yet again to October 1998, when you couldn’t take Hole’s Celebrity Skin and the soundtrack to Rush Hour out of your Discman.

In February, I hypothesized that the LSAT trough had not been reached. Looks like I’m right so far, but I’m a little surprised at the renewed acceleration in the decline in test takers. It’s possible that this October will break the 1998 moving sum record, which is good—not just for law school non-applicants but for me because I can humiliate you with more bad ’90s pop. Typically, June has the highest proportion of first-time LSATs (~70 percent between 2010 and 2012). This June low bodes ill for the number of applicants next fall.

Speaking of which, where are we with those?

No. Applicants Over App Cycle

No. Applications Over App Cycle

The final applicant estimate for 2014 has risen since February, and it’s on track to breach 55,000, which would only be a measly 4,400-applicant decline since last year.

That’s all for now. Peace.

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