Slate Thinks LSAT-Takers Are Clairvoyant

The law-school shills at the Law School Truth Center inform us that Slate gives us, “One Group of Law School Applicants That’s Growing: High-Scoring Students.”

I will keep this quick.

Jordan Weissman argues that the ~7.5 percent growth in law school applicants in the 170-174 and 175-180 LSAT brackets this year is a sign that “the right people” have decided to go to apply to law school again.

It might have helped readers if he’d told them that these applicants only account for about 5 percent of the total applicant decline since 2010.

Change in Applicants by LSAT Score Share of Net Change in Applicants (2010-2014)

(Source: LSAC, Slate, author’s calculations)

It turns out about two-thirds of the decline has been in applicants with scores below 160 and 86 percent with scores below 165, so once again the lesson is that the real right people, i.e. the ones employers don’t really want to hire, are getting the message.

As for the high-LSAT scorers, part of Weissman’s problem is that people who take the LSAT do not know ex ante what their scores will be. Sure, many people study for the exam, but the proportion of “pleasant surprises” increases the higher the bracket. It’s possible that a lot of the non-applicants are people who would have done very well on the LSAT but were not confident of that fact in advance of deciding not to take the test. It’s pretty unlikely that many applicants had a high LSAT score in hand but chose not to apply.

Grade Inflation: It Depends How You Define ‘Educational Quality’

On VoxEU, we have Raphael Boleslavsky and Christopher Cotton’s, “The unrecognized benefits of grade inflation.” The authors write:

Our analysis reveals a surprising link between grade inflation and investment in education quality – schools invest more when they are allowed to inflate grades than when grade inflation is banned. …

With grade inflation, student transcripts convey less information, and therefore the employer relies less on transcripts and more on school reputation when evaluating graduates. In this way, grade inflation increases the incentives that schools have to undertake costly investments to improve quality of education, and the average ability of their graduates. To the extent that school investments and a student’s own study efforts are strategic complements in human capital development, students who anticipate greater investments by schools in turn have greater incentives to increase their own efforts. [Emphasis LSTB]

You could replace the emphasized bits about “education quality” with “wasteful spending” or the like and you’d have an accurate description of what goes on at law schools.

For instance, we have expanding faculties:

Law School Faculty Per School (Calendar-Year Average, Index 1999=100, Excl. P.R.)

(Source: Official Guide, author’s calculations)

We have lots of internal grants and scholarships:

Spending on Internal Grants and Scholarships Per Law School (2013 $)

(Source: ABA (pdf), Bureau of Labor Statistics, author’s calculations)

We have no (net) positive impact on job outcomes:

Percent Employed by Status (NALP)

(Source: NALP)

We have a decline in legal sector labor productivity:

Legal Sector Labor Productivity (2005=100)

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

…And all this is covered with tuition hikes on the poor souls who are paying full tuition (if that):

Median Full-Time Law School Tuition (2013 $)

(Source: ABA (pdf), FinAid.org, Bureau of Labor Statistics, author’s calculations)

None of this is necessarily the result of grade inflation, which the authors’ model takes to be endogenous when I happen to think it’s exogenous (Hell, even the law school deans say so). If anything grade inflation is a symptom of the same pressures the schools are under to signal their degrees’ prestige to employers. But job outcomes is most of what this all comes down to. If there weren’t such a wide dispersion of jobs and salaries, then there’d be less motivation to engage in these kinds of wasteful behaviors. The free student loans are the accelerant.

However, there’s no reason to believe that, in the face of grade inflation, colleges and universities would improve their reputations by carefully investing in better student outcomes; rather, they would invest the bare minimum of what the employers want to see—not what actually makes the graduates more productive. That’s why the employers complain about how law students take frivolous courses but keep hiring from elite law schools nevertheless.

Revealed preferences, people. Revealed preferences.

NALP’s Fuzzy Definition of ‘JD Advantage’…

…Is largely the same as the ABA’s, but that’s not the point, which is that you should read:

NALP’s Fuzzy Definition of ‘JD Advantage’

on The American Lawyer. It’s probably the first time I’ve written on this curious topic.

I don’t have any music for you as I’m beating a virus today that’s hampering my productivity. Since my organs haven’t liquified yet, I’m ruling out Ebola.

Peace.

The Law Apprenticeship Scam

“It’s a cruel hoax. It’s such a waste of time for someone to spend three years in this program but not have anything at the end.”

So says Robert E. Glenn, president of the Virginia Board of Bar Examiners. No, Glenn wasn’t talking about Liberty University’s 34.4 percent employment rate in full-time, long-term, bar-passage-required jobs for its class of 2013, which had an average debt level of $81,045 (only!). Rather he was referring to the low bar-passage rates of Virginia’s law readers, who along with their peers in other states are the subject of a New York Times article, “The Lawyer’s Apprentice.”

Citing data from the National Conference of Bar Examiners, which the Times deserves credit for researching, we learn that only 28 percent of apprentices passed the bar versus 73 percent of ABA law school graduates. This fact prompts the ABA’s Barry Courrier to declare:

“The A.B.A. takes the position that the most appropriate process for becoming a lawyer should include obtaining a J.D. degree from a law school approved by the A.B.A. and passing a bar examination,”

I find this response disappointing for a few reasons: One, even if these statistics are for first-time test-takers only, a 73 percent pass rate is lousy. Law schools should be held to higher standards for what they charge students.

Two, the article appears to tacitly accept the ABA’s position that we can’t have good lawyers without many years of law school (and probably college too). The elephant in this room is selection bias. The reason people go to law school rather than these apprenticeship programs is that law schools broker jobs to people who already do well on standardized tests, to wit, the LSAT. Certainly in the age of PAYE, someone who can crush the LSAT has much better odds of finding a good law job by going to law school than trying to find a lawyer who will train him or her. If anything, law school is a more reliable path to qualifying for the bar exam. Indeed, the article acknowledges that “the lack of class rankings put clerkships with judges and plum gigs at big firms out of reach” for law readers.

If you’re wondering why people who don’t do well on the LSAT go to law school instead of these programs, I give three responses. One, they aren’t widely known and have no advertising. Two, many law students still buy into the versatile JD myth. Three, the largest proportion of people opting out of law school are people who don’t do amazingly on the LSAT anyway. So there. (The Times says these programs are “underpopulated,” but given the effort the would-be apprentices must go through to get established, one might think the problem is that there really isn’t much demand for new lawyers.)

I acknowledge that many of the apprentices interviewed in the article are sincere in their desire to avoid debt and only want to do small practice work. If anything, bar authorities should make it easier for people to choose that route. Instead they offer a post hoc rationalization for credentialism in legal education.

Florida Legal Sector Peaks Higher, Troughs Lower Than Country’s

The Tampa Bay Times tells us, “Florida’s Swollen Ranks of Lawyers Scrap for Piece of a Shrinking Legal Pie“—a fair assessment.

As to whether there are too many lawyers as the article says, well, obviously there are as many lawyers as the state can employ at any given time. Whether the state (and the country) produces too many law graduates and licenses more attorneys than can be absorbed is a different matter. I sympathize with attorneys trying to make a living, but I am enjoined from complaining if clients are charged less as a result.

Here’s the relevant line:

Almost half of the lawyers who responded to a Florida Bar survey last year cited “too many attorneys” as the most serious problem facing the legal profession today. That exceeded “difficult economic times” and “poor public perception,” which many blamed in part on relentless TV advertising, such as that by big personal injury firms.

Surveys are important sources of information, but just because lawyers believe something doesn’t make it true. It’s difficult to separate the extent to which the “difficult economic times” and the “too many attorneys” cause lawyer underemployment. In fact, Florida’s legal sector peaked higher and troughed harder than the rest of the southeast and the country.

Real Legal Services (Fla. edition)

(Source: BEA, author’s calcs.)

Although, the surveyed lawyers have a point: It’s also true, as the article points out, that the number of law schools in Florida needlessly doubled over the last 15 years or so. Unhelpfully, the article publishes law schools’ unemployment rates rather than my preference: percent employed in bar-passage-required jobs, full-time/long-term excluding law-school-funded jobs. Here’re Florida’s law schools’ 2013 results:

  • Florida State – 69.6%
  • University of Florida – 66.4%
  • Stetson – 62.0%
  • University of Miami – 60.7%
  • Nova Southeastern – 60.5%
  • Florida International – 59.6%
  • Thomas – 47.8%
  • Barry – 39.8%
  • Florida A&M – 38.5%
  • Ave Maria – 34.6%
  • Florida Coastal – 30.8%
  • Average Florida Law School – 51.8%
  • Southeast BEA Region Average Law School (Excl. Fla.) – 57.3%
  • Average U.S.A. Law School (Excl. P.R., Fla.) – 56.1%

In general, Florida’s law schools are doing worse than the regional and national averages. Perhaps you could call it the Florida Coastal effect. I’m sure someone with more time on their hands than I could write a paper on the impact for-profit law schools have on state employment outcomes and state legal industries.

What surprises me, though, are the attorney counts stated in the article: They’re much higher than the number of active and resident attorneys Florida bar authorities report to the ABA.

Since 2000, the number of licensed attorneys has swollen from 60,900 to 96,511. … Florida had 27,000 licensed attorneys in 1980. Within 20 years, the number had more than doubled.

According to the ABA, in 2000, there were 49,139 active and resident lawyers in Florida, and 68,464 in 2013. I don’t have numbers for 1980, but in 1989, Florida had only 33,251 active and resident lawyers. Anyway, I get 39 percent growth since 2000, not the 58 percent the article implies.

Despite these bleak facts, as always we can rely on the deans to tell us to hail the JD Advantage.

So what’s the advice for those considering law school or soon to graduate? Until demand better meets supply, [LeRoy] Pernell of Florida A&M’s law school predicts that many new lawyers will have to use their education in “nontraditional ways.” Among them: working for businesses instead of law firms.

Some could also wind up in jobs that don’t require a law degree. …

[Christopher] Pietruszkiewicz, Stetson’s dean, advises interning, then working in a public defender, state attorney or U.S. Attorney’s Office.

Hopefully the message for applicants is clear: There are better alternatives than law school in Florida.

LSAT Tea-Leaf Reading: June 2014 Edition

Info on the June 2014 LSAT is in; 21,802 people sat for the exam, a record low going back to June 2000, when you were listening to … wait for it … Brittney Spears’ Oops…I Did It Again. (Yes, you are that old.) The rate of decline in test takers accelerated this year to -9.1 percent. It’s also the largest absolute decline (-2,195) since June 2011 (-6,161).

No. LSAT Takers, 4-Testing Period Moving Sum

The four-testing-period moving sum has fallen to 103,337, reversing the trend upward last February and achieving a new record low going back yet again to October 1998, when you couldn’t take Hole’s Celebrity Skin and the soundtrack to Rush Hour out of your Discman.

In February, I hypothesized that the LSAT trough had not been reached. Looks like I’m right so far, but I’m a little surprised at the renewed acceleration in the decline in test takers. It’s possible that this October will break the 1998 moving sum record, which is good—not just for law school non-applicants but for me because I can humiliate you with more bad ’90s pop. Typically, June has the highest proportion of first-time LSATs (~70 percent between 2010 and 2012). This June low bodes ill for the number of applicants next fall.

Speaking of which, where are we with those?

No. Applicants Over App Cycle

No. Applications Over App Cycle

The final applicant estimate for 2014 has risen since February, and it’s on track to breach 55,000, which would only be a measly 4,400-applicant decline since last year.

That’s all for now. Peace.

Site Update: ‘Law School Tuition Data Going Back to 1996’…

…Can be found on the “LAW SCHOOL COST DATA (1996-)” page.

Formerly called ,”Tuition Increases at All ABA Law Schools (1999-),” or something like that, I’ve revised this site’s renowned tuition data page. Biggest changes include:

  • Tuition data for each law school going back to 1996 and up to 2013
  • Percentages of full-time students paying full tuition at each law school
  • Percentages of full-time students receiving the median grant or more at each law school (as stated in the Official Guide)
  • Tuition levels discounted by the median grant at private law schools that aren’t Brigham Young
  • A bunch of carefully sculpted dispersion charts and tables showing changes in law school tuition since 1985 or 1996 with the annual Stafford loan limit
  • And no tuition projections. I know they were popular. I know they gave me easy page views, but I don’t think any forward projection based on past data will be accurate anymore given that tuition increases are slowing down now. Also, the necessary methodology page was truly boring to write, and if anything, you folks deserve more “No Bubble, Just ROCK!!!” posts than me being bored on my own blog.

Don’t worry though, the URL is the same as before, so anyone linking to it will find the same information.

Tracking this kind of information on the back end is becoming harder as law schools (a) are socialized by public universities (meaning a change in status), (b) change their names (sometimes to sound more “hashtaggy”), and (c) contemplate splitting into multiple campuses. I’m sure consolidations are on the way as well. As it is, gathering their exact, full names was easily the most tedious aspect of this update. Easily.

Like, law schools, if you can hear me, please put your complete, full name on your main pages. Not in logos, and definitely not ending in “[law school name] Law” as though your school’s name is in fact the title of a law. To pick on one example, when I read “Wayne Law,” I thought about The Wonder Years taking place in a Michigan law school with Fred Savage, Jason Hervey, and Danica McKellar, the awesomest mathematician alive.

Which reminds me: Law schools, I’m into women as much as the next gynephile, but you do realize you put a lot of women on your main pages. There’s a certain … lack of originality to seeing attractive young women on the law school Web sites.

Wait, what am I complaining about? Strike that.

Okay, I should add—and this is very, very, very important—because the data page is so long (which is by design and I have no interest in changing) it doesn’t load well in Mozilla Firefox. If you scroll down far enough, at some point the screen turns black and the numbers are unreadable. It doesn’t crash the browser, but it doesn’t make the site easy to read. It does, however, work in Google Chrome. I don’t know if it works well on other browsers. Frankly, I don’t care at this point. Chrome is free; I prefer Firefox; whatever; we’re done here.

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