In Part I, I described why a breakdown of law schools per state is necessary. Behold! The data, far earlier than I expected. No doodles because data’s just as much fun.
METHODOLOGY
Jack Crittenden’s methodology lumped all law schools (and law students) nationwide and divided that by the total population since 1965. This dataset will differ because it’ll measure law schools and students per state. Also, I use the term “state” loosely, that is it includes District of Columbia and Puerto Rico for simplicity’s sake.
There are six tables. The first five divide state populations by the number of law schools in the state at that time. The decades are 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 (2009’s estimates). The fifth table divides state populations by their number of law students, including part-timers (provided by the ABA). There’s a slight mismatch with these numbers, but they should be close enough.
There are a several assumptions this dataset makes, primarily that law graduates practice (or work if the J.D. is that fexible) in the state of their law schools. There are a few exceptions, variations and flaws to this assumption.
- Some states will draw graduates from other states: these are “destination-law” states.
- Similarly, by an accounting identity, some states tend to export law students: these will be “exodus-law” states.
- It’s possible for a law graduate to move to a foreign country, which isn’t really an issue for this analysis. That’s a pond problem, not a hose one.
- Importantly, some schools graduate more students than others, hence the final table.
- Some states have non-ABA accredited schools, especially California. These schools may be unaffected by the bubble because they are not burdened by ABA fulltime faculty and library requirements. They also do not participate in the US News rankings, so they won’t be subject to competition pressures. I may look into these states another time.
- I’m aware of law school attrition, but I don’t think it’s important because it’s decreased proportionately to the number of overall students over the last few decades and lost students are replaced each year.
DATA
Table 1: State Population/Law Schools (1970)
| State (# of ABA Schools) | State Population/Law Schools (1970) | |
| 1 | District of Columbia (5) | 151400 |
| 2 | Wyoming (1) | 332416 |
| 3 | North Dakota (1) | 617761 |
| 4 | South Dakota (1) | 665507 |
| 5 | Montana (1) | 694409 |
| 6 | Oregon (3) | 697178 |
| 7 | Idaho (1) | 713000 |
| 8 | Nebraska (2) | 741747 |
| 9 | Hawaii (1) | 789000 |
| 10 | Massachusetts (7)* | 812739 |
| 11 | Oklahoma (3) | 853076 |
| 12 | Arizona (2) | 885500 |
| 13 | Puerto Rico (3) | 904011 |
| 14 | Louisiana (4) | 910250 |
| 15 | Maine (1) | 992048 |
| 16 | New Mexico (1) | 1017055 |
| 17 | Utah (1) | 1059273 |
| 18 | Kentucky (3) | 1073000 |
| 19 | Colorado (2) | 1103630 |
| 20 | Mississippi (2) | 1108456 |
| 21 | Kansas (2) | 1123500 |
| 22 | Alabama (3)* | 1148055 |
| 23 | Virginia (4) | 1162124 |
| 24 | Missouri (4) | 1169125 |
| 25 | California (17)* | 1173706 |
| 26 | North Carolina (4) | 1270515 |
| 27 | Indiana (4) | 1298500 |
| 28 | Tennessee (3)* | 1307896 |
| National Average (155) | 1311045 | |
| 29 | Ohio (8) | 1331502 |
| 30 | Texas (8) | 1399625 |
| 31 | Iowa (2) | 1412500 |
| 32 | Connecticut (2) | 1516000 |
| 33 | Georgia (3) | 1530000 |
| 34 | Illinois (7) | 1587714 |
| 35 | New York (11) | 1657906 |
| 36 | Florida (4) | 1697250 |
| 37 | Washington (2) | 1704585 |
| 38 | West Virginia (1) | 1744237 |
| 39 | Minnesota (2) | 1902500 |
| 40 | Arkansas (1) | 1923295 |
| 41 | Maryland (2) | 1961200 |
| 42 | Pennsylvania (6) | 1965652 |
| 43 | Wisconsin (2) | 2208866 |
| 44 | Michigan (4) | 2218771 |
| 45 | New Jersey (3) | 2389388 |
| 46 | South Carolina (1) | 2590516 |
| 47 | Alaska (0) | N/A |
| 48 | Delaware (1) | N/A |
| 49 | Nevada (1) | N/A |
| 50 | New Hampshire (1) | N/A |
| 51 | Rhode Island (1) | N/A |
| 52 | Vermont (1) | N/A |
Table 2: State Population/Law Schools (1980)
| State (# of ABA Schools) | State Population/Law Schools (1980) | |
| 1 | District of Columbia (6) | 106333 |
| 2 | Wyoming (1) | 469557 |
| 3 | Vermont (1) | 511456 |
| 4 | Delaware (1) | 594338 |
| 5 | North Dakota (1) | 652717 |
| 6 | South Dakota (1) | 690768 |
| 7 | Utah (2) | 730519 |
| 8 | Nebraska (2) | 784913 |
| 9 | Montana (1) | 786690 |
| 10 | Massachusetts (7)* | 819577 |
| 11 | Oregon (3) | 877719 |
| 12 | New Hampshire (1) | 920610 |
| 13 | Idaho (1) | 945000 |
| 14 | Hawaii (1) | 985000 |
| 15 | Oklahoma (3) | 1008430 |
| 16 | Connecticut (3) | 1035667 |
| 17 | Louisiana (4) | 1050750 |
| 18 | Puerto Rico (3) | 1065507 |
| 19 | Virginia (5) | 1069364 |
| 20 | Maine (1) | 1124660 |
| 21 | Arkansas (2) | 1143218 |
| 22 | North Carolina (5) | 1176353 |
| 23 | Kansas (2) | 1181500 |
| 24 | Ohio (9) | 1199737 |
| 25 | Kentucky (3) | 1220333 |
| 26 | Missouri (4) | 1229172 |
| 27 | New York (14) | 1254148 |
| 28 | Mississippi (2) | 1260319 |
| 29 | Illinois (9) | 1268778 |
| National Average (175) | 1294547 | |
| 30 | Alabama (3)* | 1297963 |
| 31 | New Mexico (1) | 1303302 |
| 32 | California (18)* | 1314944 |
| 33 | Arizona (2) | 1359000 |
| 34 | Minnesota (3) | 1359000 |
| 35 | Indiana (4) | 1372750 |
| 36 | Washington (3) | 1377385 |
| 37 | Colorado (2) | 1444982 |
| 38 | Iowa (2) | 1457000 |
| 39 | Tennessee (3)* | 1530373 |
| 40 | Texas (8) | 1778500 |
| 41 | Georgia (3) | 1821333 |
| 42 | Michigan (5) | 1852416 |
| 43 | Florida (5) | 1947800 |
| 44 | West Virginia (1) | 1949644 |
| 45 | Pennsylvania (6) | 1977316 |
| 46 | Maryland (2) | 2108488 |
| 47 | Wisconsin (2) | 2352884 |
| 48 | New Jersey (3) | 2454941 |
| 49 | South Carolina (1) | 3121820 |
| 50 | Alaska (0) | N/A |
| 51 | Nevada (1) | N/A |
| 52 | Rhode Island (1) | N/A |
Table 3: State Population/Law Schools (1990)
| State (# of ABA Schools) | State Population/Law Schools (1990) | |
| 1 | District of Columbia (7) | 86700 |
| 2 | Wyoming (1) | 453588 |
| 3 | Vermont (1) | 562758 |
| 4 | North Dakota (1) | 638800 |
| 5 | Delaware (1) | 666168 |
| 6 | South Dakota (1) | 696004 |
| 7 | Nebraska (2) | 789193 |
| 8 | Montana (1) | 799065 |
| 9 | Massachusetts (7)* | 859489 |
| 10 | Utah (2) | 861425 |
| 11 | Oregon (3) | 947440 |
| 12 | Idaho (1) | 1006749 |
| 13 | Virginia (6) | 1031226 |
| 14 | Oklahoma (3) | 1048528 |
| 15 | Louisiana (4) | 1054993 |
| 16 | Connecticut (3) | 1095705 |
| 17 | Hawaii (1) | 1108229 |
| 18 | New Hampshire (1) | 1109252 |
| 19 | Puerto Rico (3) | 1174012 |
| 20 | Arkansas (2) | 1175363 |
| 21 | New York (15) | 1199364 |
| 22 | Ohio (9) | 1205235 |
| 23 | Tennessee (3)* | 1219296 |
| 24 | Maine (1) | 1227928 |
| 25 | Kentucky (3) | 1228432 |
| 26 | Kansas (2) | 1238787 |
| 27 | Illinois (9) | 1270067 |
| 28 | Missouri (4) | 1279268 |
| 29 | Mississippi (2) | 1286608 |
| 30 | North Carolina (5) | 1325727 |
| 31 | Alabama (3)* | 1346862 |
| National Average (180) | 1381722 | |
| 32 | Indiana (4) | 1386040 |
| 33 | Iowa (2) | 1388378 |
| 34 | Minnesota (3) | 1458366 |
| 35 | New Mexico (1) | 1515069 |
| 36 | Georgia (4) | 1619554 |
| 37 | Washington (3) | 1622231 |
| 38 | Colorado (2) | 1647197 |
| 39 | California (18)* | 1653335 |
| 40 | Pennsylvania (7) | 1697378 |
| 41 | West Virginia (1) | 1793477 |
| 42 | Arizona (2) | 1832614 |
| 43 | Michigan (5) | 1859059 |
| 44 | Texas (8) | 2123314 |
| 45 | Florida (6) | 2156321 |
| 46 | Maryland (2) | 2390734 |
| 47 | Wisconsin (2) | 2445885 |
| 48 | New Jersey (3) | 2576729 |
| 49 | South Carolina (1) | 3486703 |
| 50 | Alaska (0) | N/A |
| 51 | Nevada (1) | N/A |
| 52 | Rhode Island (1) | N/A |
Table 4: State Population/Law Schools (2000)
| State (# of ABA Schools) | State Population/Law Schools (2000) | |
| 1 | District of Columbia (6) | 95343 |
| 2 | Alabama (3)* | 149033 |
| 3 | Wyoming (1) | 493782 |
| 4 | Vermont (1) | 608827 |
| 5 | North Dakota (1) | 642200 |
| 6 | South Dakota (1) | 754844 |
| 7 | Delaware (1) | 783600 |
| 8 | Nebraska (2) | 855632 |
| 9 | Montana (1) | 902195 |
| 10 | Massachusetts (7)* | 907014 |
| 11 | Virginia (7) | 1011216 |
| 12 | Rhode Island (1) | 1048319 |
| 13 | Utah (2) | 1116585 |
| 14 | Louisiana (4) | 1117244 |
| 15 | Connecticut (3) | 1135188 |
| 16 | Oregon (3) | 1140466 |
| 17 | Oklahoma (3) | 1150218 |
| 18 | Florida (12) | 1176175 |
| 19 | Hawaii (1) | 1211537 |
| 20 | Minnesota (4) | 1229870 |
| 21 | New Hampshire (1) | 1235686 |
| 22 | Ohio (9) | 1261460 |
| 23 | New York (15) | 1265097 |
| 24 | Puerto Rico (3) | 1269537 |
| 25 | Maine (1) | 1274923 |
| 26 | Idaho (1) | 1293953 |
| 27 | Arkansas (2) | 1336700 |
| 28 | Kansas (2) | 1344209 |
| 29 | Kentucky (3) | 1347256 |
| 30 | Illinois (9) | 1379921 |
| 31 | Missouri (4) | 1398803 |
| 32 | Mississippi (2) | 1422329 |
| National Average (192) | 1465739 | |
| 33 | Iowa (2) | 1463162 |
| 34 | Indiana (4) | 1520121 |
| 35 | North Carolina (5) | 1608110 |
| 36 | Pennsylvania (7) | 1754436 |
| 37 | California (19)* | 1782718 |
| 38 | West Virginia (1) | 1808344 |
| 39 | New Mexico (1) | 1819046 |
| 40 | Tennessee (3)* | 1896428 |
| 41 | Washington (3) | 1964707 |
| 42 | Michigan (5) | 1987689 |
| 43 | Nevada (1) | 1998257 |
| 44 | Georgia (4) | 2046613 |
| 45 | Colorado (2) | 2150631 |
| 46 | Texas (9) | 2316869 |
| 47 | Arizona (2) | 2565316 |
| 48 | Maryland (2) | 2648243 |
| 49 | Wisconsin (2) | 2681838 |
| 50 | New Jersey (3) | 2804783 |
| 51 | South Carolina (1) | 4012012 |
| 52 | Alaska (0) | N/A |
Table 5: State Population/Law Schools (2010)
| State (# of ABA Schools) | State Population/Law Schools (2010) | |
| 1 | District of Columbia (6) | 99942 |
| 2 | Wyoming (1) | 544270 |
| 3 | Vermont (1) | 621760 |
| 4 | North Dakota (1) | 646844 |
| 5 | South Dakota (1) | 812383 |
| 6 | Delaware (1) | 885122 |
| 7 | Nebraska (2) | 898310 |
| 8 | Massachusetts (7)* | 941941 |
| 9 | Montana (1) | 974989 |
| 10 | Virginia (8) | 985324 |
| 11 | Rhode Island (1) | 1053209 |
| 12 | Louisiana (4) | 1123019 |
| 13 | Connecticut (3) | 1172763 |
| 14 | Oklahoma (3) | 1229017 |
| 15 | Oregon (3) | 1275219 |
| 16 | Ohio (9) | 1282516 |
| 17 | Hawaii (1) | 1295178 |
| 18 | New York (15) | 1302764 |
| 19 | Minnesota (4) | 1316554 |
| 20 | Maine (1) | 1318301 |
| 21 | Puerto Rico (3) | 1322429 |
| 22 | New Hampshire (1) | 1324575 |
| 23 | North Carolina (7) | 1340126 |
| 24 | Utah (2) | 1368212 |
| 25 | Kansas (2) | 1409374 |
| 26 | Illinois (9) | 1434490 |
| 27 | Kentucky (3) | 1438038 |
| 28 | Arkansas (2) | 1444725 |
| 29 | Mississippi (2) | 1469309 |
| 30 | Missouri (4) | 1496895 |
| 31 | Iowa (2) | 1503928 |
| 32 | Idaho (1) | 1545801 |
| National Average (200) | 1545813 | |
| 33 | Alabama (3)* | 1569569 |
| 34 | Pennsylvania (8) | 1575596 |
| 35 | Indiana (4) | 1605778 |
| 36 | Florida (12) | 1685270 |
| 37 | West Virginia (1) | 1819777 |
| 38 | California (20)* | 1848083 |
| 39 | Georgia (5) | 1965842 |
| 40 | Michigan (5) | 2009139 |
| 41 | New Mexico (1) | 2009671 |
| 42 | Tennessee (3)* | 2071629 |
| 43 | Arizona (3) | 2198593 |
| 44 | Washington (3) | 2221398 |
| 45 | South Carolina (2) | 2280621 |
| 46 | Colorado (2) | 2512374 |
| 47 | Nevada (1) | 2643085 |
| 48 | Texas (9) | 2753589 |
| 49 | Wisconsin (2) | 2827387 |
| 50 | Maryland (2) | 2849739 |
| 51 | New Jersey (3) | 2902580 |
| 52 | Alaska (0) | N/A |
Table 6: State Population/Law Students (2007/08)
| State (# of ABA Schools) | State Population(2009)/ ABA Law Students (2007-08), incl. part-time students | |
| 1 | District of Columbia (6) | 75.06972959 |
| 2 | Massachusetts (7)* | 830.2174515 |
| 3 | Delaware (1) | 905.9590583 |
| 4 | Vermont (1) | 1034.542429 |
| 5 | New York (15) | 1169.096799 |
| 6 | Michigan (5) | 1368.903886 |
| 7 | Louisiana (4) | 1628.153679 |
| 8 | Illinois (9) | 1652.426597 |
| 9 | Minnesota (4) | 1707.038574 |
| 10 | Puerto Rico (3) | 1788.678088 |
| 11 | Virginia (8) | 1793.535836 |
| 12 | Rhode Island (1) | 1914.925455 |
| 13 | Florida (12) | 1965.016854 |
| National Average (Crittenden) | 2000 | |
| 14 | Connecticut (3) | 2003.580866 |
| 15 | Nebraska (2) | 2020.943757 |
| 16 | Missouri (4) | 2050.541096 |
| 17 | Pennsylvania (8) | 2118.804337 |
| 18 | Indiana (4) | 2193.686134 |
| 19 | Oregon (3) | 2202.450777 |
| 20 | California (20)* | 2209.436547 |
| 21 | Oklahoma (3) | 2317.44186 |
| 22 | Ohio (9) | 2346.542997 |
| 23 | Wyoming (1) | 2408.274336 |
| 24 | North Carolina (7) | 2638.785935 |
| 25 | North Dakota (1) | 2661.909465 |
| 26 | New Hampshire (1) | 2753.794179 |
| 27 | Iowa (2) | 2800.610801 |
| 28 | Maryland (2) | 2813.167818 |
| 29 | Mississippi (2) | 2817.466922 |
| 30 | Colorado (2) | 2923.064572 |
| 31 | Washington (3) | 2937.062583 |
| 32 | Kansas (2) | 3047.294054 |
| 33 | Kentucky (3) | 3094.772597 |
| 34 | Texas (9) | 3103.218382 |
| 35 | New Jersey (3) | 3184.981346 |
| 36 | Utah (2) | 3200.495906 |
| 37 | Georgia (5) | 3279.68335 |
| 38 | Alabama (3)* | 3309.000703 |
| 39 | Arkansas (2) | 3363.736903 |
| 40 | South Carolina (2) | 3487.188073 |
| 41 | Wisconsin (2) | 3627.180244 |
| 42 | Montana (1) | 3979.546939 |
| 43 | South Dakota (1) | 4082.326633 |
| 44 | Hawaii (1) | 4137.948882 |
| 45 | Tennessee (3)* | 4154.336898 |
| 46 | West Virginia (1) | 4173.800459 |
| 47 | Arizona (3) | 4658.035311 |
| 48 | Maine (1) | 4900.747212 |
| 49 | Idaho (1) | 5068.2 |
| 50 | Nevada (1) | 5427.279261 |
| 51 | New Mexico (1) | 5808.297688 |
| 52 | Alaska (0) | N/A |
Notes:
- * notes a state with non-ABA accredited law schools. CA’s stats are particularly suspect.
- Alaska has no law schools yet.
- These statistics exclude UC Irvine (CA) and Lincoln Memorial University (TN), because they are only seeking ABA accreditation.
- DC Depopulated after 1970, added 2 law schools, and then merged them in the 1992. I hope you expect these numbers in the U.S. Capital!
- DE excludes Widener’s Harrisbug, PA campus, which is, of course, included in PA.
- Just going through the data, it seemed that New York didn’t have too many law schools, but it sure seemed to pack them.
- Perhaps Cooley’s high number of students and high attrition rate weaken MI’s students/population statistic. Same may go for William Mitchell in MN.
- The number of law schools in Florida doubled in the 1990s
ANALYSIS
Some thoughts…I’m evaluating these data is by looking at the rankings on Table 6 (population/law students) first and then looking at how those states have ranked over time in the states/law school tables.
First, there’s a pretty clear east/northeast tendency in the data. Given the high unemployment caused by the housing bubble’s burst, I’d say the East Coast, New England, and the Upper Midwest (save Wisconsin) are places to avoid going to law school. Texas’ low rank is somewhat surprising. I figured it’d be saturating its market the way other large states do.
It’s interesting to see Michigan consistently rank so low in the total number of law schools, yet sit in the top ten for law students. It bears repeating what I wrote in the notes: Thomas M. Cooley School of Law skews these data pretty badly. California’s swarms of unaccredited law schools probably add far more students than indicated as well, particularly because so many have opened between 1970 and now as compared to the three ABA schools that opened in that period. However, those schools might be immune to the tuition bubble because they aren’t ranked and aren’t burdened by ABA fulltime faculty requirements.
Some states did unusually badly. Florida probably added a few law schools too many in the last several years, but I’m fascinated by Minnesota’s story[1]. St. Thomas’ opening dropped it a full fourteen places in the state rankings. Even opening Hamline in the 70s mayn’t’ve been such a good idea. The interesting comparison lies between Minnesota and Wisconsin, which I’m interested in doing in more depth in the future. Wisconsin has been consistently restrained in its number of law students and law schools. Being surrounded by Minnesota, Illinois, and Michigan probably hem it in quite a bit, subjecting it to law student refugees who can’t find jobs in those adjacent states. Louisiana is another state to avoid.
What to say about Vermont Law School, Roger Williams (Rhode Island), and Widener in Delaware? It’s unlikely these schools can serve only local markets. Their graduates must be moving outstate, and I suspect they don’t go very far. They’re the “exodus-law” states I predicted. I just didn’t think small northeastern states would be so prominent! Is this a bad thing? Indirectly. If Vermont, Roger Williams, and Widener provide a cheaper, better legal education than can be found in the nearby states (I’m guessing law schools in New York and Massachusetts in particular), then the savings pass to legal consumers. It suggests, though, just how saturated the East Coast and New England is. Though they’re not remarkably recent schools, their existence suggests that the region should not add any more law schools and that if any should shut down, that’s the region to look first. Maine is lovely though; I suggest going there instead.
Another interesting comparison is between Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Both are distant from the mainland, though some Puerto Ricans likely relocate to Florida and Hawaiians to California. Because of their relative geographic isolation, comparing them to develop measures of attorney saturation could be quite useful.
The relationship between wealth and law schools/law students also requires investigation. The swath from Virginia to Massachusetts had better have some reason to justify such a concentration, and I’m curious if it’s a tuition bubble hot spot. Until then, should we call it “The Valley of Death”?
Next post, I will betray my capitalist loyalties and defend cartelization of legal practice.
[1] At this point, I should tell you I’m a native Minnesotan, and I even grew up within spitting distance of Westlaw’s global headquarters. I chose not to go to law school in my home state because I’d already heard how saturated it was when St. Thomas opened its law school.
The Last Gen X American 