Reinhart and Rogoff Had It Easy

The updated version of my Am Law Daily article, “Most States Saw Lawyer Surplus Grow From 2009 to 2011” is now online with correct information about the number of Nevada bar admits. There is still no new datum on the anomalous average annual lawyer job increase in Mississippi due to its negative or zero replacement rate. I am told the Mississippi Department of Employment Security will publish its numbers shortly, but that was weeks ago. Overall, the modifications to the article are trivial and do not remotely call my arguments or conclusions into question, which is that there is no Shangri-La legal market out there for law graduates and new lawyers to move to.

Let me just add (brag) that the update is a clarification and not a correction because I copied the source data precisely and had no obvious reason to question the numbers they presented. Thus, there are no Reinhart/Rogoff-style spreadsheet errors to apologize for. However, going forward, I will be more vigilant. Apparently, not everyone is as meticulous in their data collection and presentation as I am.

One comment

  1. “Thus, there are no Reinhart/Rogoff-style spreadsheet errors to apologize for. ”

    Actually, that was the least of their, ah – problems. They also deleted data – but only points which went against their thesis. They counted every episode of high/low debt to high/low growth as one data point (e.g., 17 years of high debt and moderate growth for the UK was count one year of high debt and low [negative] growth in New Zealand averaged to high debt and negative growth). They also refused to share their data and methods with their peers for three years, as their peers were unable to replicate their results.

    I think that they copped to the spreadsheet error as the least bad of what they did; IMHO they committed academic fraud.

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