June 2013 LSATs came in at 23,997, the lowest since 2001 (23,908) but only a 4.86 percent drop from June 2012. Last year I figured June’s low decline indicated that the applicant trough was about to be reached, but I was proven wrong. The subsequent three testing periods all saw double-digit percent declines. Either June is an unusual LSAT month, or we’re hitting the trough. I’m changing my bet from last year and guessing it’s the former.
See? The moving sum is turning into a slide at a water park. Either way, at some point the law of diminishing returns will kick in. I don’t think October, December, and February will see such small single-digit declines, but they’ll have to slow down someday.
Here are the applicant and application counts.
You may’ve read elsewhere that this year the final applicant and applications projections have been rising in recent months. (It’s true.) Right now the final applicant projection is at 59,200. It was as low as 53,200 at the beginning of the cycle. Either people are just applying later, or law schools keep pushing back their application deadlines.