Day: 2013/09/11

Remember Mississippi?

If you don’t, I’ll remind you. Back in May when I updated the law graduate overproduction page, the Internet crowded around and poked at Mississippi with a stick, wondering why its ratio of graduates per job openings was so high.

Anyway, the hubbub about Mississippi grew significant because 30 jobs per year is pretty paltry, and it turned out that there was something off about it. At 300 jobs in a decade, the state projected a negative replacement rate, which doesn’t make sense. It really couldn’t be explained except by concluding that the data were suspect.

Well, the Mississippi Department of Employment Security (MDES) finally updated its occupational employment projections (PDF) for 2020, and the situation isn’t any better.

CareerOneStop 3,770 4,110 30
MDES 2,210 2,060 40

The number of employed lawyers for both years according to MDES is much lower than CareerOneStop’s estimate. It’s also declining. All 40 jobs per year are due to replacement, not growth, but at least MDES’s numbers make more sense. 400 jobs in ten years > 2,060 – 2,210 = -150 jobs due to growth in ten years.

I am disinclined to correct anything on either the overproduction page or my Am Law Daily article. The MDES numbers aren’t really comparable to CareerOneStop’s, and revising the average annual growth rate won’t knock Mississippi out of the number one position of graduates per job opening.