LSAT Tea-Leaf Reading: June 2014 Edition

Info on the June 2014 LSAT is in; 21,802 people sat for the exam, a record low going back to June 2000, when you were listening to … wait for it … Brittney Spears’ Oops…I Did It Again. (Yes, you are that old.) The rate of decline in test takers accelerated this year to -9.1 percent. It’s also the largest absolute decline (-2,195) since June 2011 (-6,161).

No. LSAT Takers, 4-Testing Period Moving Sum

The four-testing-period moving sum has fallen to 103,337, reversing the trend upward last February and achieving a new record low going back yet again to October 1998, when you couldn’t take Hole’s Celebrity Skin and the soundtrack to Rush Hour out of your Discman.

In February, I hypothesized that the LSAT trough had not been reached. Looks like I’m right so far, but I’m a little surprised at the renewed acceleration in the decline in test takers. It’s possible that this October will break the 1998 moving sum record, which is good—not just for law school non-applicants but for me because I can humiliate you with more bad ’90s pop. Typically, June has the highest proportion of first-time LSATs (~70 percent between 2010 and 2012). This June low bodes ill for the number of applicants next fall.

Speaking of which, where are we with those?

No. Applicants Over App Cycle

No. Applications Over App Cycle

The final applicant estimate for 2014 has risen since February, and it’s on track to breach 55,000, which would only be a measly 4,400-applicant decline since last year.

That’s all for now. Peace.

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