Day: 2015/12/04

Week 48: More Than 55,500 Applicants Projected for 2016

Like the lost, fictitious island of Atlantis, the LSAC’s first report of the 2016 law-school application cycle predicts an applicant rise! At 13,881 applicants as of week 48, it appears more than 55,500 people will apply to law school next year.

Importantly, the LSAC has changed its reporting from fall-term applicants only to applicants for all academic terms. I don’t like changes like these as they impair past comparisons, but it’s probably the right thing to do. It’s unclear when the 2016-17 academic year begins, so I’ll try to treat these concepts with caution until I’m sure.

As it is, in week 48 of 2014, there were 11,415 applicants for the fall term, so a substantial number of people are now being included who were not before, more than 2,000 applicants apparently. What is notable is the difference between the number of applications per applicant.

For fall 2015: 6.13

For all 2016: 5.36 (approx.)

For all 2016: 5.12

In fact, according to the current report, applicants are up slightly for 2016, but applications have fallen by 4.1 percent. Although final predictions based on the first reported week are volatile, these numbers suggest that while some people might believe now is the best time ever to go to law school, they don’t believe it for all law schools. I’ve posited that the distribution of applications matters too and will continue to do so going forward.

Here are links to my past reporting on the opening of the applicant horse race: November 2013 and November 2014, both predicting applicant declines that didn’t pan out. In both those years, the final applicant count rose above the initial projections, meaning that the number of applicants “accelerated” into the cycle. Here’s an illustration starting in January of the application year:

No. Applicants as a Percent of Preliminary Final Count by Week

(Note: This is based on old LSAC data that applies to the fall term only.)

Over the last three years, a growing proportion of applicants didn’t apply until later in the cycle. If this phenomenon continues, i.e. back-loading applicants, then we can expect more than 55,500 total applicants by fall 2016.

I’m not sure why applicants are appearing later than the in past. It’s possibly due to law schools moving their application deadlines further back to capture more bodies and those applicants obliging. Alternatively, the applicant crash that started in 2010 might have affected the earlier chunk of the application cycle. In other words, the type of people who chose not apply to law school are the ones who would’ve first applied in November-January.

Between back-loading applicants, rising applicants, and falling applications, this cycle might throw us some curve balls.