Day: 2018/05/14

CLASS OF 2017 EMPLOYMENT REPORT: Take That, JD-Advantage Jobs!

So I was all set to write up the class of 2017 employment report two weekends ago, but I went out of town twice, so that distracted me from my very important blogging duties. To make up for that I’m redoing my annual employment report by foregrounding the actual important information and editorials and then following up with the employed-bar-passage-required full-time, long-term ranking of shame.

To begin with, here’s the table of graduate underemployment. (Everything on this post excludes the three Puerto Rico law schools.)

STATUS (EXCL. P.R.) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Unemployed – Not Seeking 1,245 1,014 939 795 553 494 469 441
Unemployed – Seeking 2,686 4,016 4,770 5,060 4,103 3,744 3,142 2,614
Status Unknown 1,458 1,453 1,073 979 841 766 557 437
Total Grads 43,526 43,735 45,757 46,112 43,195 39,423 36,619 34,392
Unemployed – Not Seeking 2.9% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Unemployed – Seeking 6.2% 9.2% 10.4% 11.0% 9.5% 9.5% 8.6% 7.6%
Status Unknown 3.3% 3.3% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3%
Total Percent 12.4% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8% 12.7% 12.7% 11.4% 10.2%

For ’17, the underemployment rate (“Total Percent” in the table) fell by yet another percentage point, almost all of which appeared in the Unemployed – Seeking category. This is good news. 10.2 percent is still a terrible rate, to say nothing of the 7.6 percent seeking work, but progress is progress.

On the reverse side, 67.1 percent of graduates found full-time long-term work in bar-passage-required jobs. Last year, that figure was 62.5 percent, so this is quite the jump. In three years, the percentage has risen by 10 points, which is quite notable, except that the absolute number of students finding these jobs has been roughly the same each year. Reducing students at unheralded law schools reduces poor outcomes.

So what differed this year? Let’s take a look at the analytic tables that compare this year to last year.

EMPLOYMENT STATUS NO. OF GRADS GRADS PCT. OF TOTAL PCT. CHANGE IN GRADS DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGE IN GRADS GINI COEFFICIENT
2016 2017 2016 2017 2017 2017 2016 2017
Employed – Bar Passage Required 23,833 23,939 65.1% 69.6% 0.4% -4.8% 0.34 0.34
Employed – JD Advantage 5,162 4,021 14.1% 11.7% -22.1% 51.2% 0.36 0.38
Employed – Professional Position 1,390 1,091 3.8% 3.2% -21.5% 13.4% 0.54 0.54
Employed – Non-Professional Position 435 401 1.2% 1.2% -7.8% 1.5% 0.54 0.55
Employed – Law School 757 605 2.1% 1.8% -20.1% 6.8% 0.80 0.79
Employed – Undeterminable 21 23 0.1% 0.1% 9.5% -0.1% 0.95 0.92
Employed – Pursuing Graduate Degree 600 535 1.6% 1.6% -10.8% 2.9% 0.50 0.52
Unemployed – Start Date Deferred 253 285 0.7% 0.8% 12.6% -1.4% 0.64 0.59
Unemployed – Not Seeking 469 441 1.3% 1.3% -6.0% 1.3% 0.57 0.52
Unemployed – Seeking 3,142 2,614 8.6% 7.6% -16.8% 23.7% 0.46 0.43
Employment Status Unknown 557 437 1.5% 1.3% -21.5% 5.4% 0.67 0.66
Total Graduates 36,619 34,392 100.0% 100.0% -6.1% 100.0% 0.29 0.29
EMPLOYMENT TYPE NO. OF GRADS GRADS PCT. OF TOTAL PCT. CHANGE IN GRADS DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGE IN GRADS GINI COEFFICIENT
2016 2017 2016 2017 2017 2017 2016 2017
Solo 508 439 1.4% 1.3% -13.6% 3.1% 0.61 0.58
2-10 6,269 5,773 17.1% 16.8% -7.9% 22.3% 0.35 0.33
11-25 1,739 1,695 4.7% 4.9% -2.5% 2.0% 0.41 0.42
26-50 942 998 2.6% 2.9% 5.9% -2.5% 0.43 0.45
51-100 797 800 2.2% 2.3% 0.4% -0.1% 0.48 0.48
101-250 958 977 2.6% 2.8% 2.0% -0.9% 0.51 0.51
251-500 1,008 1,003 2.8% 2.9% -0.5% 0.2% 0.68 0.64
501-PLUS 4,243 4,611 11.6% 13.4% 8.7% -16.5% 0.78 0.77
Unknown 228 96 0.6% 0.3% -57.9% 5.9% 0.91 0.85
Business Industry 4,930 4,142 13.5% 12.0% -16.0% 35.4% 0.36 0.36
Government 4,402 4,133 12.0% 12.0% -6.1% 12.1% 0.32 0.32
Public Interest 1,638 1,617 4.5% 4.7% -1.3% 0.9% 0.47 0.48
Federal Clerkship 1,197 1,170 3.3% 3.4% -2.3% 1.2% 0.72 0.69
State/Local Clerkship 2,091 2,050 5.7% 6.0% -2.0% 1.8% 0.58 0.58
Other Clerkship 20 24 0.1% 0.1% 20.0% -0.2% 0.93 0.93
Education 583 483 1.6% 1.4% -17.2% 4.5% 0.49 0.48
Unknown Employer Type 45 67 0.1% 0.2% 48.9% -1.0% 0.94 0.91
Total Employed by Type 31,598 30,078 86.3% 87.5% -4.8% 68.3% 0.30 0.31

For ’17, there were 2,227 fewer graduates than in 2016, a decline of 6.1 percent. Three employment statuses accounted for nearly 90 percent of the difference between the two classes: Employed JD Advantage (51.2%) (!), Unemployed – Seeking (23.7%), and Employed – Professional Position (13.4%). This pretty much tells you what you need to know about this year’s employment report.

Changes among the employment types accounted for 68.3 percent of the 2,227 graduates. The four largest drivers were business-and-industry jobs (35.4%), 2-10-lawyer practices (22.3%), government jobs (12.1%), education positions (4.5%), and solo practices (3.1%). Notably, jobs at 501-plus-lawyer firms grew by 368 people, so it pushed back against the graduate decline (-16.5%). Biglaw’s gains are consistent with last year’s trends, as is the decline in small-law jobs.

I won’t discuss the Gini coefficients as I did last year. The most desirable jobs are still distributed worse than wealth in a kleptocracy.

Editorial: This year’s employment report showcased many of the similar trends from last year: Good outcomes substituting for worse ones. It differs in that JD advantage jobs took a big hit while bar-passage-required jobs grew slightly. What’s interesting here is that overall, law-firm jobs fell nonetheless. Somewhere in the employment type outcomes are compositional changes where grads found law jobs and not JD advantage jobs. I sure hope none of that is accounting shenanigans by law schools.

Finally, I’m happy that the ABA has not implemented its decision to change how it collects and displays employment data. Readers will note that I did not repeat the mistakes regarding law-school-funded jobs that I made last year, and yes, I recognize that perhaps I don’t find much use for short-term or part-time job categories. Nevertheless, the purposes of careful data collection are usefulness, detail, transparency, and consistency—not what’s convenient for law-school employees.

That’s all for now.

Similar editions of this post from prior years can be found here:

Advertisements