State-Level Employment Projections: High Lawyer Replacement

Every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes state-level employment projections on its affiliated Web site projectionscentral.com. The data from this site include estimates of the number of lawyer positions (not people who are lawyers) out there in 2016, a prediction of how many there will be by 2026 (assuming full employment), and the projected number of annual lawyer job openings.

In past years this topic was one of my favorites because I could compare the number of lawyer job openings to the numbers of law-school graduates (via the ABA) and new bar admits (via the NCBEX). However, because the BLS changed its methodology for calculating occupational replacement rates a few years ago, this is no longer possible. Instead, I can show the ten-year replacement rate for lawyers by state, but first here are the basic numbers compared to those from the previous cycle two years ago.

STATE/BEA REGION	NO. EMPLOYED LAWYERS			LAWYER EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS			ANNUAL LAWYER GROWTH RATE
	2014	2016	% CHANGE	2024	2026	% CHANGE	2024	2026	% CHANGE
Alabama	7,050	6,860	-2.7%	7,410	7,400	-0.1%	140	350	N/A
Alaska	1,070	1,030	-3.7%	1,020	930	-8.8%	20	30	N/A
Arizona	9,630	11,830	22.8%	11,870	13,310	12.1%	370	670	N/A
Arkansas	4,720	3,900	-17.4%	5,360	4,520	-15.7%	130	240	N/A
California	91,900	97,400	6.0%	102,700	108,000	5.2%	2,420	5,330	N/A
Colorado	15,800	14,630	-7.4%	19,270	17,370	-9.9%	600	1,010	N/A
Connecticut	12,620	12,260	-2.9%	13,080	12,960	-0.9%	230	590	N/A
Delaware	3,540	3,270	-7.6%	3,660	3,550	-3.0%	60	170	N/A
District of Columbia	38,920	39,360	1.1%	41,480	41,770	0.7%	830	1,920	N/A
Florida	59,400	60,180	1.3%	68,400	67,970	-0.6%	1,770	3,440	N/A
Georgia	18,160	20,570	13.3%	19,690	22,800	15.8%	420	1,120	N/A
Hawaii	2,410	2,690	11.6%	2,500	2,820	12.8%	40	130	N/A
Idaho	3,030	1,460	-51.8%	2,960	1,610	-45.6%	50	80	N/A
Illinois	35,840	36,230	1.1%	37,950	39,280	3.5%	740	1,870	N/A
Indiana	9,450	10,500	11.1%	10,520	11,530	9.6%	250	560	N/A
Iowa	4,340	4,330	-0.2%	4,880	4,880	0.0%	120	250	N/A
Kansas	5,090	4,750	-6.7%	5,570	5,350	-3.9%	130	270	N/A
Kentucky	9,490	6,850	-27.8%	10,640	7,250	-31.9%	250	330	N/A
Louisiana	9,180	8,390	-8.6%	9,730	9,210	-5.3%	190	450	N/A
Maine	3,170	3,000	-5.4%	3,210	3,020	-5.9%	50	130	N/A
Maryland	11,690	14,520	24.2%	13,370	14,930	11.7%	360	540	N/A
Massachusetts	22,100	22,220	0.5%	23,080	23,880	3.5%	420	1,120	N/A
Michigan	17,900	18,770	4.9%	19,230	20,140	4.7%	400	940	N/A
Minnesota	12,640	12,640	0.0%	13,340	13,800	3.4%	260	660	N/A
Mississippi	3,760	4,150	10.4%	4,030	4,200	4.2%	80	180	N/A
Missouri	12,470	12,220	-2.0%	13,160	13,510	2.7%	250	660	N/A
Montana	2,550	2,490	-2.4%	2,830	2,700	-4.6%	70	130	N/A
Nebraska	3,910	3,720	-4.9%	4,400	4,220	-4.1%	110	220	N/A
Nevada	6,030	7,050	16.9%	7,880	7,560	-4.1%	270	350	N/A
New Hampshire	2,010	1,950	-3.0%	2,070	2,090	1.0%	40	100	N/A
New Jersey	24,520	26,610	8.5%	25,140	28,660	14.0%	420	1,350	N/A
New Mexico	3,810	3,600	-5.5%	3,830	3,760	-1.8%	60	170	N/A
New York	90,830	84,230	-7.3%	99,020	93,900	-5.2%	2,150	4,660	N/A
North Carolina	16,020	14,430	-9.9%	17,870	16,010	-10.4%	420	790	N/A
North Dakota	1,740	2,080	19.5%	1,790	2,240	25.1%	30	110	N/A
Ohio	20,180	20,150	-0.1%	21,290	20,120	-5.5%	410	830	N/A
Oklahoma	9,480	8,280	-12.7%	10,290	8,930	-13.2%	220	420	N/A
Oregon	8,250	8,180	-0.8%	9,440	8,960	-5.1%	240	430	N/A
Pennsylvania	31,240	31,640	1.3%	32,960	33,790	2.5%	630	1,570	N/A
Puerto Rico	4,420	4,260	-3.6%	4,500	4,250	-5.6%	70	170	N/A
Rhode Island	4,210	4,050	-3.8%	4,460	4,250	-4.7%	90	190	N/A
South Carolina	7,220	8,160	13.0%	7,670	8,870	15.6%	150	420	N/A
South Dakota	980	970	-1.0%	1,080	1,070	-0.9%	20	50	N/A
Tennessee	7,990	9,660	20.9%	8,690	10,850	24.9%	200	550	N/A
Texas	51,420	N/A	N/A	63,140	N/A	N/A	1,920	N/A	N/A
Utah	5,310	5,550	4.5%	6,360	6,800	6.9%	180	380	N/A
Vermont	1,940	1,950	0.5%	1,990	1,940	-2.5%	30	80	N/A
Virginia	21,860	21,530	-1.5%	24,150	23,660	-2.0%	550	1,150	N/A
Washington	17,290	15,510	-10.3%	18,940	17,040	-10.0%	430	830	N/A
West Virginia	N/A	3,230	N/A	N/A	135	N/A	N/A	150	N/A
Wisconsin	9,620	9,400	-2.3%	9,940	9,870	-0.7%	170	450	N/A
Wyoming	1,160	1,020	-12.1%	1,130	1,060	-6.2%	20	50	N/A
STATES (EXCL. P.R.)	774,940	777,640	0.3%	854,470	857,480	0.4%	19,410	40,240	N/A
U.S.A. (EXCL. P.R.)	778,700	792,500	1.8%	822,500	857,500	4.3%	15,770	40,700	N/A
New England	46,050	45,430	-1.3%	47,890	48,140	0.5%	860	2,210	N/A
Mideast	200,740	199,630	-0.6%	215,630	216,600	0.4%	4,450	10,210	N/A
Great Lakes	92,990	95,050	2.2%	98,930	100,940	2.0%	1,970	4,650	N/A
Plains	41,170	40,710	-1.1%	44,220	45,070	1.9%	920	2,220	N/A
Southeast*	164,850	164,680*	-0.1%*	183,640	182,740*	-0.5%*	4,300	9,020*	N/A
Southwest*	74,340	75,130*	1.1%*	89,130	89,140*	0.0%*	2,570	>3,180*	N/A
Rocky Mountains	27,850	25,150	-9.7%	32,550	29,540	-9.2%	920	1,650	N/A
Far West	126,950	131,860	3.9%	142,480	145,310	2.0%	3,420	7,100	N/A

(Note: Only Texas did not report its numbers this year, which is lamentable because it’s a large state. West Virginia did not report two years ago. For the purposes of the regional estimates, wherever there were gaps, I used Texas’ 2014 numbers for this year and omitted West Virginia entirely.)

Superficially, one can tell that the data are erratic. It’s unlikely that half of Idaho’s lawyers disappeared in two years, and there are other wide swings like Maryland and Kentucky. The BEA regional numbers look steadier though.

On to the specifics. You can clearly see that the annual job growth numbers are much higher for 2016, but that’s because of the methodology change, not anything to do with the legal labor market. Presumably, had the new methodology been used in the past, the numbers would have been quite higher. Even as it is, unfortunately, the new methodology gives the misleading impression that the legal profession is capable of absorbing significant numbers of law-school graduates and new lawyers. Indeed, the class of 2017 only had about 34,500 persons, and nearly 42,000 people were admitted by examination or diploma privilege. Certainly this should indicate a healthy employment situation for law graduates, right?

The question isn’t simply whether grads get jobs, but what kind of jobs they are and how long they keep them. Moreover, lawyer positions that open by replacement won’t necessarily be filled by new lawyers. So, here’s a table depicting the projected annual number of new lawyer jobs created each year until 2026, the number created by replacement, and an estimate of the ten-year replacement rate.

STATE	Annual New Lawyer Jobs		Annual Replacement Lawyer Jobs		10-Year Lawyer Replacement Rate
	2024	2026	2024	2026	2026
Alabama	36	54	104	296	43.1%
Alaska	-5	-10	N/A	N/A	N/A
Arizona	224	148	146	522	44.1%
Arkansas	64	62	66	178	45.6%
California	1,080	1,060	1,340	4,270	43.8%
Colorado	347	274	253	736	50.3%
Connecticut	46	70	184	520	42.4%
Delaware	12	28	48	142	43.4%
District of Columbia	256	241	574	1,679	42.7%
Florida	900	779	870	2,661	44.2%
Georgia	153	223	267	897	43.6%
Hawaii	9	13	31	117	43.5%
Idaho	-7	15	N/A	65	44.5%
Illinois	211	305	529	1,565	43.2%
Indiana	107	103	143	457	43.5%
Iowa	54	55	66	195	45.0%
Kansas	48	60	82	210	44.2%
Kentucky	115	40	135	290	42.3%
Louisiana	55	82	135	368	43.9%
Maine	4	2	46	128	42.7%
Maryland	168	41	192	499	34.4%
Massachusetts	98	166	322	954	42.9%
Michigan	133	137	267	803	42.8%
Minnesota	70	116	190	544	43.0%
Mississippi	27	5	53	175	42.2%
Missouri	69	129	181	531	43.5%
Montana	28	21	42	109	43.8%
Nebraska	49	50	61	170	45.7%
Nevada	185	51	85	299	42.4%
New Hampshire	6	14	34	86	44.1%
New Jersey	62	205	358	1,145	43.0%
New Mexico	2	16	58	154	42.8%
New York	819	967	1,331	3,693	43.8%
North Carolina	185	158	235	632	43.8%
North Dakota	5	16	25	94	45.2%
Ohio	111	-3	299	N/A	N/A
Oklahoma	81	65	139	355	42.9%
Oregon	119	78	121	352	43.0%
Pennsylvania	172	215	458	1,355	42.8%
Puerto Rico	8	-1	62	N/A	N/A
Rhode Island	25	20	65	170	42.0%
South Carolina	45	71	105	349	42.8%
South Dakota	10	10	10	40	41.2%
Tennessee	70	119	130	431	44.6%
Texas	1,172	N/A	748	N/A	N/A
Utah	105	125	75	255	45.9%
Vermont	5	-1	25	N/A	N/A
Virginia	229	213	321	937	43.5%
Washington	165	153	265	677	43.6%
West Virginia	N/A	15	N/A	135	41.8%
Wisconsin	32	47	138	403	42.9%
Wyoming	-3	4	N/A	46	45.1%
U.S.A. (EXCL. P.R.)	4,380	6,500	11,390	34,200	43.2%

(Note: States that predict declines in lawyer counts do not have replacement rates. Also, the U.S.A. totals at the bottom are not the sums of the individual jurisdictions of them.)

The one ray of hope here is the faster rate of new lawyer job growth nationwide. The BLS appears to be predicting it’ll accelerate at about 50 percent. However, most jobs are created by replacement, not growth. Thus, we have a set of ten-year replacement rates that are consistently above 40 percent, which astonishes me, but is still consistent with the national data from last year. I question whether the methodology is producing reliable results. Perhaps law practice is too small an occupation to accurately measure, unlike retail salespeople. Although, it’s necessary to bear in mind that not all lawyer jobs are created equal and some may turnover multiple times in a decade.

Meanwhile, I checked the numbers again, and occupations such as “Dentists, General” and “Physicians and Surgeons, All Other” have ten-year replacement rates below 30 percent. “Paralegals and Legal Assistants” have a staggering ten-year replacement rate of 120 percent.

So yes, the projections don’t inspire me with confidence, but they’re the best, neutral evidence we have about the long-term viability of a law career. If they gave a contrary result (and other evidence backed it up), then I’d arrive at a different conclusion. But today is not that day, so I stand by my opinion that law schools cannot credibly represent good outcomes for their prospective and current students.