CLASS OF 2018 EMPLOYMENT REPORT: About the Same

Good morning, folks! Law-school-employment data are in, and before there’s a revision, this post will depict what they show. As with last year, I’m going to start with the headline information and save the law-school-level ranking of shame for later.

To begin with, here’s the table of graduate underemployment. (Everything on this post excludes the three Puerto Rico law schools.)

STATUS (EXCL. P.R.)	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Unemployed – Not Seeking	1,245	1,014	939	795	553	494	469	441	387
Unemployed – Seeking	2,686	4,016	4,770	5,060	4,103	3,744	3,142	2,610	2,348
Status Unknown	1,458	1,453	1,073	979	841	766	557	437	444
Total Grads	43,526	43,735	45,757	46,112	43,195	39,423	36,619	34,393	33,751
Unemployed – Not Seeking	2.9%	2.3%	2.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.1%
Unemployed – Seeking	6.2%	9.2%	10.4%	11.0%	9.5%	9.5%	8.6%	7.6%	7.0%
Status Unknown	3.3%	3.3%	2.3%	2.1%	1.9%	1.9%	1.5%	1.3%	1.3%
Total Percent	12.4%	14.8%	14.8%	14.8%	12.7%	12.7%	11.4%	10.1%	9.4%

As with the last few years, overall underemployment fell faster than the number of graduates. The rate of decline appears to be slowing, which isn’t good, but it’s still progress.

On the reverse side, 69.2 percent of graduates found full-time long-term work in bar-passage-required jobs. Last year, that figure was 67.0 percent, so it’s a two-percent jump. In three years, the percentage has risen by 6.7 points, which is quite notable. However, the rate of improvement appears to be slowing, even if the actual number of graduates finding these jobs rose by 300.

So what’s different this year? Let’s take a look at the analytic tables that compare this year to last year.

EMPLOYMENT STATUS	NO. OF GRADS		GRADS PCT. OF TOTAL		PCT. CHANGE IN GRADS	DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGE IN GRADS	GINI COEFFICIENT
	2017	2018	2017	2018	2018	2018	2017	2018
Employed – Bar Passage Required	23,936	23,922	69.6%	70.9%	-0.1%	2.2%	0.34	0.34
Employed – JD Advantage	4,027	4,018	11.7%	11.9%	-0.2%	1.4%	0.38	0.37
Employed – Professional Position	1,091	991	3.2%	2.9%	-9.2%	15.6%	0.54	0.55
Employed – Non-Professional Position	399	346	1.2%	1.0%	-13.3%	8.3%	0.55	0.63
Employed – Law School	604	515	1.8%	1.5%	-14.7%	13.9%	0.79	0.80
Employed – Undeterminable	23	32	0.1%	0.1%	39.1%	-1.4%	0.92	0.90
Employed – Pursuing Graduate Degree	535	480	1.6%	1.4%	-10.3%	8.6%	0.52	0.55
Unemployed – Start Date Deferred	290	268	0.8%	0.8%	-7.6%	3.4%	0.58	0.58
Unemployed – Not Seeking	441	387	1.3%	1.1%	-12.2%	8.4%	0.52	0.53
Unemployed – Seeking	2,610	2,348	7.6%	7.0%	-10.0%	40.8%	0.43	0.42
Employment Status Unknown	437	444	1.3%	1.3%	1.6%	-1.1%	0.66	0.71
Total Graduates	34,393	33,751	100.0%	100.0%	-1.9%	100.0%	0.29	0.30
EMPLOYMENT TYPE	NO. OF GRADS		GRADS PCT. OF TOTAL		PCT. CHANGE IN GRADS	DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGE IN GRADS	GINI COEFFICIENT
	2017	2018	2017	2018	2018	2018	2017	2018
Solo	438	368	1.3%	1.1%	-16.0%	10.9%	0.58	0.59
2-10	5,771	5,485	16.8%	16.3%	-5.0%	44.5%	0.33	0.34
11-25	1,694	1,731	4.9%	5.1%	2.2%	-5.8%	0.42	0.41
26-50	998	1,050	2.9%	3.1%	5.2%	-8.1%	0.45	0.45
51-100	800	850	2.3%	2.5%	6.3%	-7.8%	0.48	0.46
101-250	977	1,016	2.8%	3.0%	4.0%	-6.1%	0.51	0.48
251-500	1,003	957	2.9%	2.8%	-4.6%	7.2%	0.64	0.63
501-PLUS	4,611	4,777	13.4%	14.2%	3.6%	-25.9%	0.77	0.76
Unknown	96	99	0.3%	0.3%	3.1%	-0.5%	0.85	0.87
Business Industry	4,149	3,841	12.1%	11.4%	-7.4%	48.0%	0.36	0.36
Government	4,132	4,101	12.0%	12.2%	-0.8%	4.8%	0.32	0.33
Public Interest	1,618	1,679	4.7%	5.0%	3.8%	-9.5%	0.48	0.48
Federal Clerkship	1,171	1,190	3.4%	3.5%	1.6%	-3.0%	0.69	0.69
State/Local Clerkship	2,048	2,130	6.0%	6.3%	4.0%	-12.8%	0.58	0.58
Other Clerkship	25	27	0.1%	0.1%	8.0%	-0.3%	0.92	0.95
Education	481	462	1.4%	1.4%	-4.0%	3.0%	0.48	0.52
Unknown Employer Type	66	70	0.2%	0.2%	6.1%	-0.6%	0.91	0.90
Total Employed by Type	30,078	29,833	87.5%	88.4%	-0.8%	38.2%	0.31	0.31

In ’18, there were 642 fewer graduates than in 2017, a decline of 1.9 percent. By comparison, last year I reported a drop of 6.1 percent. Because the change in graduates is mild this year it’s not so easy to pick apart the data to identify clear trends. Nevertheless, the three biggest employment statuses contributing to the decline were: Unemployed – Seeking (40.8%), Employed – Professional Position (15.6%), and Employed – Law School (13.9%). The total here is 70.2 percent.

Changes among the employment types accounted for just 38.2 percent of the 642 fewer graduates, and the categories are quite polarized. Business Industry (+48%), 2-10-lawyer practices (+44.5%), State/Local Clerkship (-12.8%), and 501-plus-lawyer firms (-25.9%). That is to say, Business Industry jobs fell and clerkships rose, etcetera.

Here’s a link to my discussion of what Gini coefficients mean. They vary little year by year, so there’s not much of a reason to discuss them beyond the disgustingly out-of-reach federal clerkships.

Editorial: This year’s employment report is the first in a while that was a bit muddy because the graduate crash is leveling off. Still, it appears more grads were able to find jobs, those jobs were better overall, and law-firm jobs are shifting away from smaller practices to much larger ones. These are good trends in principle. Mostly though, I would hesitate to read too much into an employment report that differs so little from last year’s.

Similar editions of this post from prior years can be found here:

• “CLASS OF 2017 EMPLOYMENT REPORT: Take That, JD-Advantage Jobs!” [’17]
• “Class of 2016 Employment Report (Corrected)” [’16]
• “Change in Graduate Outcomes Driven by Small Jobs” [’15]
• “Law Grad Jobs Unequal Like Income in Corrupt Countries” [’14]