Labor Dept.: 32,300 New Lawyer Jobs by 2029, Turnover of 24 Percent

On September 1, 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment projections for the next cycle, 2019-2029.

For 2019, the BLS’s Employment Projections program (EP program) estimates that there were 813,900 lawyer positions (as opposed to discrete lawyers) in the United States. This figure includes self-employed attorneys. In 2019, the EP program found 823,900 lawyer positions, a small decline from last year. According to the BLS’s Current Population Survey (CPS), in 2019, 1.24 million people worked as lawyers in the United States. The discrepancy between the CPS and the EP program has existed for some time. In their respective contexts, both figures are correct.

The BLS projects future employment trends in part to help job seekers evaluate career choices, and the projections play an outsized role in the BLS’s Occupational Outlook Handbook. Here is an illustration from various sources that converts the flows of law-school graduates and new lawyers into stocks that can be compared to BLS employment measures since the 1980s.

Click here to read more:

Labor Dept.: 50,100 New Lawyer Jobs by 2028, Turnover of 27 Percent

On September 4, 2019, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment projections for the next cycle, 2018-2028.

For 2018, the BLS’s Employment Projections program (EP program) estimates that there were 823,900 lawyer positions (as opposed to discrete lawyers) in the United States. This figure includes self-employed attorneys. In 2016, the EP program found 792,500 lawyer positions, so there has been some growth between the two years. According to the BLS’s Current Population Survey (CPS), in 2018, 1.199 million people worked as lawyers in the United States. The discrepancy between the CPS and the EP program has existed for some time. In their respective contexts, both figures are correct.

The BLS projects future employment trends in part to help job seekers evaluate career choices, and the projections play an outsized role in the BLS’s Occupational Outlook Handbook. Here is an illustration from various sources that converts the flows of law-school graduates and new lawyers into stocks that can be compared to BLS employment measures since the 1980s.

Click here to read more:

State-Level Employment Projections: High Lawyer Replacement

Every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes state-level employment projections on its affiliated Web site projectionscentral.com. The data from this site include estimates of the number of lawyer positions (not people who are lawyers) out there in 2016, a prediction of how many there will be by 2026 (assuming full employment), and the projected number of annual lawyer job openings.

In past years this topic was one of my favorites because I could compare the number of lawyer job openings to the numbers of law-school graduates (via the ABA) and new bar admits (via the NCBEX). However, because the BLS changed its methodology for calculating occupational replacement rates a few years ago, this is no longer possible. Instead, I can show the ten-year replacement rate for lawyers by state, but first here are the basic numbers compared to those from the previous cycle two years ago.

STATE/BEA REGION	NO. EMPLOYED LAWYERS			LAWYER EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS			ANNUAL LAWYER GROWTH RATE
	2014	2016	% CHANGE	2024	2026	% CHANGE	2024	2026	% CHANGE
Alabama	7,050	6,860	-2.7%	7,410	7,400	-0.1%	140	350	N/A
Alaska	1,070	1,030	-3.7%	1,020	930	-8.8%	20	30	N/A
Arizona	9,630	11,830	22.8%	11,870	13,310	12.1%	370	670	N/A
Arkansas	4,720	3,900	-17.4%	5,360	4,520	-15.7%	130	240	N/A
California	91,900	97,400	6.0%	102,700	108,000	5.2%	2,420	5,330	N/A
Colorado	15,800	14,630	-7.4%	19,270	17,370	-9.9%	600	1,010	N/A
Connecticut	12,620	12,260	-2.9%	13,080	12,960	-0.9%	230	590	N/A
Delaware	3,540	3,270	-7.6%	3,660	3,550	-3.0%	60	170	N/A
District of Columbia	38,920	39,360	1.1%	41,480	41,770	0.7%	830	1,920	N/A
Florida	59,400	60,180	1.3%	68,400	67,970	-0.6%	1,770	3,440	N/A
Georgia	18,160	20,570	13.3%	19,690	22,800	15.8%	420	1,120	N/A
Hawaii	2,410	2,690	11.6%	2,500	2,820	12.8%	40	130	N/A
Idaho	3,030	1,460	-51.8%	2,960	1,610	-45.6%	50	80	N/A
Illinois	35,840	36,230	1.1%	37,950	39,280	3.5%	740	1,870	N/A
Indiana	9,450	10,500	11.1%	10,520	11,530	9.6%	250	560	N/A
Iowa	4,340	4,330	-0.2%	4,880	4,880	0.0%	120	250	N/A
Kansas	5,090	4,750	-6.7%	5,570	5,350	-3.9%	130	270	N/A
Kentucky	9,490	6,850	-27.8%	10,640	7,250	-31.9%	250	330	N/A
Louisiana	9,180	8,390	-8.6%	9,730	9,210	-5.3%	190	450	N/A
Maine	3,170	3,000	-5.4%	3,210	3,020	-5.9%	50	130	N/A
Maryland	11,690	14,520	24.2%	13,370	14,930	11.7%	360	540	N/A
Massachusetts	22,100	22,220	0.5%	23,080	23,880	3.5%	420	1,120	N/A
Michigan	17,900	18,770	4.9%	19,230	20,140	4.7%	400	940	N/A
Minnesota	12,640	12,640	0.0%	13,340	13,800	3.4%	260	660	N/A
Mississippi	3,760	4,150	10.4%	4,030	4,200	4.2%	80	180	N/A
Missouri	12,470	12,220	-2.0%	13,160	13,510	2.7%	250	660	N/A
Montana	2,550	2,490	-2.4%	2,830	2,700	-4.6%	70	130	N/A
Nebraska	3,910	3,720	-4.9%	4,400	4,220	-4.1%	110	220	N/A
Nevada	6,030	7,050	16.9%	7,880	7,560	-4.1%	270	350	N/A
New Hampshire	2,010	1,950	-3.0%	2,070	2,090	1.0%	40	100	N/A
New Jersey	24,520	26,610	8.5%	25,140	28,660	14.0%	420	1,350	N/A
New Mexico	3,810	3,600	-5.5%	3,830	3,760	-1.8%	60	170	N/A
New York	90,830	84,230	-7.3%	99,020	93,900	-5.2%	2,150	4,660	N/A
North Carolina	16,020	14,430	-9.9%	17,870	16,010	-10.4%	420	790	N/A
North Dakota	1,740	2,080	19.5%	1,790	2,240	25.1%	30	110	N/A
Ohio	20,180	20,150	-0.1%	21,290	20,120	-5.5%	410	830	N/A
Oklahoma	9,480	8,280	-12.7%	10,290	8,930	-13.2%	220	420	N/A
Oregon	8,250	8,180	-0.8%	9,440	8,960	-5.1%	240	430	N/A
Pennsylvania	31,240	31,640	1.3%	32,960	33,790	2.5%	630	1,570	N/A
Puerto Rico	4,420	4,260	-3.6%	4,500	4,250	-5.6%	70	170	N/A
Rhode Island	4,210	4,050	-3.8%	4,460	4,250	-4.7%	90	190	N/A
South Carolina	7,220	8,160	13.0%	7,670	8,870	15.6%	150	420	N/A
South Dakota	980	970	-1.0%	1,080	1,070	-0.9%	20	50	N/A
Tennessee	7,990	9,660	20.9%	8,690	10,850	24.9%	200	550	N/A
Texas	51,420	N/A	N/A	63,140	N/A	N/A	1,920	N/A	N/A
Utah	5,310	5,550	4.5%	6,360	6,800	6.9%	180	380	N/A
Vermont	1,940	1,950	0.5%	1,990	1,940	-2.5%	30	80	N/A
Virginia	21,860	21,530	-1.5%	24,150	23,660	-2.0%	550	1,150	N/A
Washington	17,290	15,510	-10.3%	18,940	17,040	-10.0%	430	830	N/A
West Virginia	N/A	3,230	N/A	N/A	135	N/A	N/A	150	N/A
Wisconsin	9,620	9,400	-2.3%	9,940	9,870	-0.7%	170	450	N/A
Wyoming	1,160	1,020	-12.1%	1,130	1,060	-6.2%	20	50	N/A
STATES (EXCL. P.R.)	774,940	777,640	0.3%	854,470	857,480	0.4%	19,410	40,240	N/A
U.S.A. (EXCL. P.R.)	778,700	792,500	1.8%	822,500	857,500	4.3%	15,770	40,700	N/A
New England	46,050	45,430	-1.3%	47,890	48,140	0.5%	860	2,210	N/A
Mideast	200,740	199,630	-0.6%	215,630	216,600	0.4%	4,450	10,210	N/A
Great Lakes	92,990	95,050	2.2%	98,930	100,940	2.0%	1,970	4,650	N/A
Plains	41,170	40,710	-1.1%	44,220	45,070	1.9%	920	2,220	N/A
Southeast*	164,850	164,680*	-0.1%*	183,640	182,740*	-0.5%*	4,300	9,020*	N/A
Southwest*	74,340	75,130*	1.1%*	89,130	89,140*	0.0%*	2,570	>3,180*	N/A
Rocky Mountains	27,850	25,150	-9.7%	32,550	29,540	-9.2%	920	1,650	N/A
Far West	126,950	131,860	3.9%	142,480	145,310	2.0%	3,420	7,100	N/A

(Note: Only Texas did not report its numbers this year, which is lamentable because it’s a large state. West Virginia did not report two years ago. For the purposes of the regional estimates, wherever there were gaps, I used Texas’ 2014 numbers for this year and omitted West Virginia entirely.)

Superficially, one can tell that the data are erratic. It’s unlikely that half of Idaho’s lawyers disappeared in two years, and there are other wide swings like Maryland and Kentucky. The BEA regional numbers look steadier though.

On to the specifics. You can clearly see that the annual job growth numbers are much higher for 2016, but that’s because of the methodology change, not anything to do with the legal labor market. Presumably, had the new methodology been used in the past, the numbers would have been quite higher. Even as it is, unfortunately, the new methodology gives the misleading impression that the legal profession is capable of absorbing significant numbers of law-school graduates and new lawyers. Indeed, the class of 2017 only had about 34,500 persons, and nearly 42,000 people were admitted by examination or diploma privilege. Certainly this should indicate a healthy employment situation for law graduates, right?

The question isn’t simply whether grads get jobs, but what kind of jobs they are and how long they keep them. Moreover, lawyer positions that open by replacement won’t necessarily be filled by new lawyers. So, here’s a table depicting the projected annual number of new lawyer jobs created each year until 2026, the number created by replacement, and an estimate of the ten-year replacement rate.

STATE	Annual New Lawyer Jobs		Annual Replacement Lawyer Jobs		10-Year Lawyer Replacement Rate
	2024	2026	2024	2026	2026
Alabama	36	54	104	296	43.1%
Alaska	-5	-10	N/A	N/A	N/A
Arizona	224	148	146	522	44.1%
Arkansas	64	62	66	178	45.6%
California	1,080	1,060	1,340	4,270	43.8%
Colorado	347	274	253	736	50.3%
Connecticut	46	70	184	520	42.4%
Delaware	12	28	48	142	43.4%
District of Columbia	256	241	574	1,679	42.7%
Florida	900	779	870	2,661	44.2%
Georgia	153	223	267	897	43.6%
Hawaii	9	13	31	117	43.5%
Idaho	-7	15	N/A	65	44.5%
Illinois	211	305	529	1,565	43.2%
Indiana	107	103	143	457	43.5%
Iowa	54	55	66	195	45.0%
Kansas	48	60	82	210	44.2%
Kentucky	115	40	135	290	42.3%
Louisiana	55	82	135	368	43.9%
Maine	4	2	46	128	42.7%
Maryland	168	41	192	499	34.4%
Massachusetts	98	166	322	954	42.9%
Michigan	133	137	267	803	42.8%
Minnesota	70	116	190	544	43.0%
Mississippi	27	5	53	175	42.2%
Missouri	69	129	181	531	43.5%
Montana	28	21	42	109	43.8%
Nebraska	49	50	61	170	45.7%
Nevada	185	51	85	299	42.4%
New Hampshire	6	14	34	86	44.1%
New Jersey	62	205	358	1,145	43.0%
New Mexico	2	16	58	154	42.8%
New York	819	967	1,331	3,693	43.8%
North Carolina	185	158	235	632	43.8%
North Dakota	5	16	25	94	45.2%
Ohio	111	-3	299	N/A	N/A
Oklahoma	81	65	139	355	42.9%
Oregon	119	78	121	352	43.0%
Pennsylvania	172	215	458	1,355	42.8%
Puerto Rico	8	-1	62	N/A	N/A
Rhode Island	25	20	65	170	42.0%
South Carolina	45	71	105	349	42.8%
South Dakota	10	10	10	40	41.2%
Tennessee	70	119	130	431	44.6%
Texas	1,172	N/A	748	N/A	N/A
Utah	105	125	75	255	45.9%
Vermont	5	-1	25	N/A	N/A
Virginia	229	213	321	937	43.5%
Washington	165	153	265	677	43.6%
West Virginia	N/A	15	N/A	135	41.8%
Wisconsin	32	47	138	403	42.9%
Wyoming	-3	4	N/A	46	45.1%
U.S.A. (EXCL. P.R.)	4,380	6,500	11,390	34,200	43.2%

(Note: States that predict declines in lawyer counts do not have replacement rates. Also, the U.S.A. totals at the bottom are not the sums of the individual jurisdictions of them.)

The one ray of hope here is the faster rate of new lawyer job growth nationwide. The BLS appears to be predicting it’ll accelerate at about 50 percent. However, most jobs are created by replacement, not growth. Thus, we have a set of ten-year replacement rates that are consistently above 40 percent, which astonishes me, but is still consistent with the national data from last year. I question whether the methodology is producing reliable results. Perhaps law practice is too small an occupation to accurately measure, unlike retail salespeople. Although, it’s necessary to bear in mind that not all lawyer jobs are created equal and some may turnover multiple times in a decade.

Meanwhile, I checked the numbers again, and occupations such as “Dentists, General” and “Physicians and Surgeons, All Other” have ten-year replacement rates below 30 percent. “Paralegals and Legal Assistants” have a staggering ten-year replacement rate of 120 percent.

So yes, the projections don’t inspire me with confidence, but they’re the best, neutral evidence we have about the long-term viability of a law career. If they gave a contrary result (and other evidence backed it up), then I’d arrive at a different conclusion. But today is not that day, so I stand by my opinion that law schools cannot credibly represent good outcomes for their prospective and current students.

BLS: 74,800 New Lawyer Jobs by 2026, Turnover of 22 Percent

On October 24th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its employment projections for the next cycle, 2016-26.

For 2016, the BLS Employment Projections program (EPP) estimates that there were 792,500 lawyer positions (as opposed to discrete lawyers) in the United States. This figure includes self-employed lawyers. In 2014, the EPP found 778,700 lawyer positions, so there has been some growth between the two years. According to the BLS’s Current Population Survey (CPS), in 2016, 1.133 million people worked as lawyers in the United States. The discrepancy between the CPS and the EPP has existed for some time. In their respective contexts, both figures are correct.

The BLS projects future employment trends in part to help job seekers evaluate career choices, and the projections play a significant role in the BLS’s Occupational Outlook Handbook. Here is an illustration, from various sources, of law-school graduate and lawyer growth since the 1980s.

Click here to read more:

Half of States to See Decline in Lawyer Surpluses

In August, the National Association for Law Placement verified a trend that appeared in ABA data several months earlier: Despite the falling supply of law school graduates, demand for their work stubbornly refuses to materialize. In fact, the number of graduates who found work as lawyers fell far more than the number of unemployed graduates, suggesting that either many graduates failed the bar or that new lawyer jobs are much more transitory than they appear.

But if the short term trend indicates fewer lawyers in the future, what about the long-term outlook?

Fortunately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics updated its biennial state-level occupational employment projections. These data include an estimate of the number of lawyer positions (not people who are lawyers) out there in 2014, a prediction of how many there will be in 2024, and the projected number of annual lawyer job openings. This last figure can be compared to the number of new law licenses issued courtesy of the National Conference of Bar Examiners (NCBE) or law school graduates (from the ABA) to give the “lawyer surplus” and the “law graduate surplus,” respectively.

There are a few reasons to calculate two surplus ratios rather than one. For the lawyer surplus, the NCBE’s number of new law licenses includes many duplicates—people who become licensed in more than one jurisdiction—but it helps track people who obtain licenses on motion to places where few people sit for the bar, e.g. Washington D.C. Meanwhile, the law graduate surplus measures discrete individuals, but it excludes people who go to non-ABA-accredited law schools and not everyone who graduates from an ABA law school finds jobs as lawyers.

The two surpluses permit comparisons among states’ legal markets to show which parts of the country might provide better opportunities for new lawyers, but they are not a direct proxy for the typical number of people seeking job openings.

First, here’s a table of the state-level occupational employment information for the 2014-24 period compared to the 2012-22 period. The “STATES” row is the sum of the data from the state-level employment information, including the District of Columbia but excluding Puerto Rico, but the “U.S.A.” row is from the national projections provided by the BLS late last year. The STATES row and the Bureau of Economic Analysis regions below only include jurisdictions that reported in both time periods to ensure relevant comparisons.

STATE/BEA REGION	NO. EMPLOYED LAWYERS		LAWYER EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS		ANNUAL LAWYER GROWTH RATE
	2012	2014	2022	2024	2022	2024
Alabama	7,040	7,050	7,710	7,410	180	140
Alaska	1,020	1,070	1,010	1,020	20	20
Arizona	11,740	9,630	14,160	11,870	430	370
Arkansas	4,420	4,720	4,940	5,360	120	130
California	87,400	91,900	97,300	102,700	2,390	2,420
Colorado	15,800	15,800	19,280	19,270	600	600
Connecticut	9,390	12,620	10,080	13,080	220	230
Delaware	3,400	3,540	3,700	3,660	80	60
District of Columbia	33,460	38,920	35,040	41,480	690	830
Florida	51,860	59,400	61,310	68,400	1,930	1,770
Georgia	19,520	18,160	23,220	19,690	680	420
Hawaii	2,460	2,410	2,580	2,500	50	40
Idaho	2,700	N/A	2,820	N/A	60	N/A
Illinois	34,810	35,840	38,400	37,950	920	740
Indiana	7,680	9,450	8,810	10,520	240	250
Iowa	4,450	4,340	5,050	4,880	130	120
Kansas	4,950	5,090	5,610	5,570	150	130
Kentucky	5,600	9,490	6,450	10,640	300	250
Louisiana	9,310	9,180	10,490	9,730	270	190
Maine	2,930	3,170	3,010	3,210	60	50
Maryland	14,800	11,690	16,330	13,370	390	360
Massachusetts	22,640	22,100	24,590	23,080	560	420
Michigan	N/A	17,900	N/A	19,230	N/A	400
Minnesota	12,550	12,640	13,080	13,340	260	260
Mississippi	3,220	3,760	3,460	4,030	80	80
Missouri	12,620	12,470	14,410	13,160	380	250
Montana	2,270	2,550	2,530	2,830	60	70
Nebraska	4,060	3,910	4,430	4,400	100	110
Nevada	5,640	6,030	6,260	7,880	150	270
New Hampshire	2,280	2,010	2,380	2,070	50	40
New Jersey	24,150	24,520	26,390	25,140	610	420
New Mexico	3,830	3,810	3,980	3,830	80	60
New York	82,220	90,830	88,680	99,020	1,960	2,150
North Carolina	14,810	16,020	17,500	17,870	510	420
North Dakota	1,540	1,740	1,680	1,790	40	30
Ohio	21,160	20,180	23,480	21,290	570	410
Oklahoma	9,260	9,480	10,270	10,290	250	220
Oregon	5,070	8,250	5,830	9,440	160	240
Pennsylvania	31,260	31,240	34,700	32,960	840	630
Puerto Rico	4,440	4,420	5,040	4,500	130	70
Rhode Island	N/A	4,210	N/A	4,460	N/A	90
South Carolina	7,140	7,220	7,950	7,670	200	150
South Dakota	1,400	980	1,540	1,080	40	20
Tennessee	8,010	7,990	10,520	8,690	380	200
Texas	49,350	51,420	60,090	63,140	1,800	1,920
Utah	5,890	5,310	7,470	6,360	250	180
Vermont	2,030	1,940	2,150	1,990	40	30
Virginia	20,430	21,860	23,030	24,150	590	550
Washington	16,290	17,290	20,070	18,940	670	430
West Virginia	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Wisconsin	9,330	9,620	10,740	9,940	290	170
Wyoming	1,050	1,160	1,170	1,130	30	20
STATES (EXCL. P.R.)	711,540	749,800	802,860	827,820	20,800	18,870
U.S.A. (EXCL. P.R.)	759,800	778,700	834,700	822,500	19,650	15,770
New England	39,270	41,840	42,210	43,430	930	770
Mideast	189,290	200,740	204,840	215,630	4,570	4,450
Great Lakes	72,980	75,090	81,430	79,700	2,020	1,570
Plains	41,570	41,170	45,800	44,220	1,100	920
Southeast	151,360	164,850	176,580	183,640	5,240	4,300
Southwest	74,180	74,340	88,500	89,130	2,560	2,570
Rocky Mountains	25,010	24,820	30,450	29,590	940	870
Far West	117,880	126,950	133,050	142,480	3,440	3,420

Superficially, some states seem to have created many new lawyer jobs between 2012 and 2014. For example, it’s doubtful that Kentucky’s and Oregon’s legal markets grew by more than 60 percent in just two years, or that South Dakota’s contracted by 30 percent. The only state whose large swing may be plausible is Nevada’s. Its lawyer job count grew by about 7 percent since 2012, but its 10-year outlook rose by 25 percent with a corresponding 80 percent surge in projected annual job openings. On average, annual job openings sank by 12 percent among jurisdictions that reported in both periods while excluding Puerto Rico. Only 10 states and the District of Columbia had higher annual job growth rates than in 2012. The rate of decline in annual job growth for all jurisdictions that reported in both years and excluding Puerto Rico is 9 percent, which is less alarming than the BLS’s 20 percent drop for the whole country.

Offsetting the slowdown in lawyer job growth is somewhat greater losses in bar admits and law school graduates, 13 percent and 14 percent, respectively. The result is that 24 states and the District of Columbia have smaller lawyer and law graduate surpluses in 2014 than 2012. Overwhelmingly, the cause in these jurisdictions is modest annual job growth projections coupled with strong losses in new graduates and new lawyers. Here’s the full table.

#	STATE/BEA REGION	NO. ABA LAW SCHOOL GRADS		NO. BAR ADMITS		RATIO ABA GRADS TO ANNUAL LAWYER JOBS		RATIO BAR ADMITS TO ANNUAL LAWYER JOBS
		2013	2015	2013	2015	2013	2015	2013	2015
1	Wyoming	78	73	161	198	2.60	3.65	5.37	9.90
2	North Dakota	75	79	267	219	1.88	2.63	6.68	7.30
3	Alaska	0	0	130	140	0.00	0.00	6.50	7.00
4	New Hampshire	107	70	250	272	2.14	1.75	5.00	6.80
5	Puerto Rico	662	569	491	458	5.09	8.13	3.78	6.54
6	New Jersey	859	585	3,386	2,586	1.41	1.39	5.55	6.16
7	New Mexico	114	112	287	292	1.43	1.87	3.59	4.87
8	Massachusetts	2,391	2,164	2,411	1,981	4.27	5.15	4.31	4.72
9	Hawaii	108	111	206	188	2.16	2.78	4.12	4.70
10	South Dakota	73	63	121	93	1.83	3.15	3.03	4.65
11	Wisconsin	485	447	843	781	1.67	2.63	2.91	4.59
12	Missouri	883	700	1,034	1,051	2.32	2.80	2.72	4.20
13	New York	5,007	4,105	10,251	8,867	2.55	1.91	5.23	4.12
14	Washington	654	579	1,353	1,759	0.98	1.35	2.02	4.09
15	Maryland	600	537	1,742	1,382	1.54	1.49	4.47	3.84
16	Tennessee	501	533	1,011	741	1.32	2.67	2.66	3.71
17	Minnesota	942	723	1,028	939	3.62	2.78	3.95	3.61
18	Vermont	203	163	151	108	5.08	5.43	3.78	3.60
19	Illinois	2,278	2,036	3,184	2,525	2.48	2.75	3.46	3.41
20	Louisiana	936	822	533	630	3.47	4.33	1.97	3.32
21	South Carolina	442	335	598	494	2.21	2.23	2.99	3.29
22	Alabama	427	351	503	454	2.37	2.51	2.79	3.24
23	Pennsylvania	1,703	1,418	2,241	1,927	2.03	2.25	2.67	3.06
24	Utah	292	258	499	548	1.17	1.43	2.00	3.04
25	Iowa	328	263	416	356	2.52	2.19	3.20	2.97
26	Maine	96	78	183	145	1.60	1.56	3.05	2.90
27	Mississippi	377	274	305	232	4.71	3.43	3.81	2.90
28	District of Columbia	2,181	1,916	3,120	2,389	3.16	2.31	4.52	2.88
29	Georgia	1,085	931	1,377	1,205	1.60	2.22	2.03	2.87
30	Ohio	1,474	1,088	1,444	1,172	2.59	2.65	2.53	2.86
31	Michigan	2,206	1,606	1,248	1,082	N/A	4.02	N/A	2.71
32	Kansas	324	255	393	340	2.16	1.96	2.62	2.62
33	Nebraska	249	245	316	285	2.49	2.23	3.16	2.59
34	North Carolina	1,429	1,422	1,091	1,072	2.80	3.39	2.14	2.55
35	California	5,184	4,392	7,008	6,150	2.17	1.81	2.93	2.54
36	Indiana	834	764	675	625	3.48	3.06	2.81	2.50
37	Oregon	527	427	659	574	3.29	1.78	4.12	2.39
38	Connecticut	541	477	680	530	2.46	2.07	3.09	2.30
39	Virginia	1,440	1,277	1,590	1,252	2.44	2.32	2.69	2.28
40	Montana	81	82	204	158	1.35	1.17	3.40	2.26
41	Arizona	640	705	906	835	1.49	1.91	2.11	2.26
42	Arkansas	275	255	302	268	2.29	1.96	2.52	2.06
43	Rhode Island	174	129	201	175	N/A	1.43	N/A	1.94
44	Colorado	437	439	1,217	1,125	0.73	0.73	2.03	1.88
45	Kentucky	422	395	668	463	1.41	1.58	2.23	1.85
46	Florida	3,190	2,718	3,476	3,177	1.65	1.54	1.80	1.79
47	Texas	2,323	2,075	3,836	3,346	1.29	1.08	2.13	1.74
48	Delaware	279	170	148	99	3.49	2.83	1.85	1.65
49	Oklahoma	468	380	463	350	1.87	1.73	1.85	1.59
50	Nevada	132	131	343	321	0.88	0.49	2.29	1.19
N/A	Idaho	117	106	231	212	1.95	N/A	3.85	N/A
N/A	West Virginia	130	125	274	242	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
STATES (EXCL. P.R.)		43,474	37,423	63,010	54,644	2.09	1.98	3.03	2.90
U.S.A. (EXCL. P.R.)		46,101	39,389	64,964	56,355	2.35	2.50	3.31	3.57
New England		3,338	2,952	3,675	3,036	3.59	3.83	3.95	3.94
Mideast		10,629	8,731	20,888	17,250	2.33	1.96	4.57	3.88
Great Lakes		5,071	4,335	6,146	5,103	2.51	2.76	3.04	3.25
Plains		2,874	2,328	3,575	3,283	2.61	2.53	3.25	3.57
Southeast		10,524	9,313	11,454	9,988	2.01	2.17	2.19	2.32
Southwest		3,545	3,272	5,492	4,823	1.38	1.27	2.15	1.88
Rocky Mountains		888	852	2,081	2,029	0.94	0.98	2.21	2.33
Far West		6,605	5,640	9,699	9,132	1.92	1.65	2.82	2.67

Of the 22 states that produced higher lawyer surpluses than before, all but three showed steep declines in annual lawyer job creation, nearly all of them over 25 percent. Washington State stands out in particular because it admitted 30 percent more lawyers while its lawyer market is expected to produce 36 percent fewer jobs annually. On the other hand, it has 12 percent fewer graduates in 2015 than 2013 and some growth in lawyer employment, so there are reasons to believe its outlook isn’t so bad. Other states tell similar stories.

The BLS’s methodology distinguishes jobs created by economic growth from those created by replacement of people leaving the occupation. The annual number of positions created by growth is measured by simply taking the difference between the predicted number of employed lawyers in 2024 and 2014, and then dividing that by ten. The annual number of jobs created by replacement can be found by subtracting the number of jobs created by growth from the number of jobs created annually. Consequently, it’s possible to explore which category of jobs states think will (or won’t open up). Consistent with the BLS’s national-level employment projections, state governments predominantly predict jobs created by economic growth will plummet while jobs created by vacancies will fall at a smaller rate.

Notably, among states that reported employment data for 2012 and 2014, the cumulative number of annual openings (18,870) is much higher than the BLS’s more dour prediction (15,770). This suggests that the BLS is much more pessimistic about lawyer job growth than state governments are. Specifically, about 41 percent of lawyer job openings will be created by growth according to the state projections as opposed to 28 percent as reported by the BLS. Hopefully the former will pan out for new graduates who pass the bar.

Overall, it’s good news that lawyer surpluses are falling, even if it isn’t a widespread phenomenon and not due to a bright future for the legal profession. It’s unclear why state governments and the BLS are so pessimistic about lawyer job growth compared to two years ago. The ultimate cause may be due to predictions of slow job growth in general and not lawyer jobs specifically. Although that development is discouraging, the crash in law students is compensating for it, meaning fewer graduates will struggle to find work.

BLS Projects Only 43,800 New Lawyer Jobs by 2024

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its employment projections for the next cycle: 2014-2024.

In 2014, the BLS estimated that there were 778,700 lawyer positions (as opposed to discrete lawyers) in the United States. This figure includes self-employed lawyers. In 2012, the Employment Projections Program found 759,800 lawyer positions, so there has been some growth. According to the Current Population Survey, in 2014, 1.132 million people worked as lawyers in the United States. The discrepancy between the CPS and the EPP has existed for some time. In their respective contexts, both figures are correct.

The BLS projects future employment trends in part to help job seekers evaluate career choices, and the projections play a significant role in the BLS’s Occupational Outlook Handbook. Here is an illustration, from various sources, of law-school graduate and lawyer growth since the 1980s.

Between 2014 and 2024, the BLS estimates a total 157,700 net lawyer jobs will be created. Of those, only 43,800 can be attributed to economic growth over the decade. The rest, 113,900, consist of net occupational replacements. Last year, I wrote about how the BLS plans to revise its replacement methodology, switching from a net replacement measurement to a gross one. When applied to lawyers, it appeared more jobs would be created annually than under the current methodology. The BLS has not yet adopted the new methodology.

Unfortunately—and despite my warnings—some law professors concluded that a higher replacement rate meant better job prospects for law school graduates. However, this position fails to account for turnover—the rate at which lawyers leave the law for different occupations or leave the labor force entirely. In fact, in a prototype analysis of the new methodology, the BLS estimated that over ten years one lawyer in four would move to a different occupation. By comparison, the rate for physicians was only 15 percent. It is unlikely that every lawyer moving to a different occupation will find work in a field that requires the skills and knowledge obtained in law school or pays accordingly.

The BLS typically divides the ten-year employment projection by ten, suggesting that only 15,770 lawyer positions will be created each year until 2024. Despite falling law-school enrollments, but with the number of applicants possibly rising, it does not appear that the economy will be able to absorb all new lawyers completing law school. Indeed, in 2014, 43,800 people graduated from ABA law schools, but it’s likely that fewer than 40,000 graduated in 2015. The number of people admitted to the bar by admission and diploma privilege—a measure of new lawyer growth—was 54,820 in 2014, but this includes many duplicates.

The number of law school graduates and new bar admits far exceed the projected lawyer job growth rate. Consequently, it appears that although interest in law school has waned, far more people are attending law school than the profession can employ.

My opinions of J.D. advantage jobs can be found here.

My comprehensive explanation of the various measures of law-school grads and lawyers can be found on this page. It also should contain any links I may have omitted in this post.

Site Update: Lawyer Overproduction Page

You can find it here or in the “original research (updated)” menu above. It’s long overdue as I’ve received requests for its sources.

I also delisted the “law schools and law students per capita” page. It hadn’t been updated in around three years, and the lawyer overproduction page pretty much supersedes it. It’s a little sad because that was the first research project I started on this blog back in the summer of ’10. Maybe I’ll come up with a reason to put it back into the mix, but not now.

New BLS Employment Projections: Only 196,500 New Lawyer Jobs by 2022

Despite the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics managed to update its employment projections for 2012 to 2022 a tad earlier than I expected. You can find them here.

One bit of good news for the legal profession is that between 2010 and 2012, the BLS estimated some growth in the number of lawyers employed in the U.S., 728,200 in 2010, 759,800 today. It’s about the same as in 2008 (759,200). However, back in 2002, the BLS projected 813,000 lawyer jobs for 2012, so once again, the projections were overoptimistic.

The bad news is that the projected number of employed lawyers in 2022 (834,700) is lower than in previous years, e.g. 857,700 in 2018. Moreover, the job growth rate is declining. In 2020, the BLS projected a total of 212,000 jobs due to growth and replacement. Between 2012 and 2022, the total is 196,500 lawyer positions. Dividing by ten, this means that 19,650 jobs are predicted to be created annually. Despite the law school applicant nosedive, the number of jobs law graduates and lawyers will be competing over appear to be diminishing, mainly due to fewer positions being replaced.

Here’s the master lawyer oversupply and law graduate overproduction chart. The 2000 edition of the Official Guide lists the number of new lawyers, and I supplemented that with National Conference of Bar Examiners data on lawyer licensing (which includes some people who were admitted by examination in more than one jurisdiction, so there’s some overcounting).

I’d comment more, but…

I have to give a lecture on college education and student loan debt at the Henry George School of Social Science at 6:30, TONIGHT (i.e. Friday, December 20, 2013). DETAILS HERE.

BLS Updates Its 2020 Employment Projections: For Law Students, It’s Very Bad

It turns out the Bureau of Labor Statistics updated its Employment Projections in February, though the Occupational Outlook Handbook will have to wait until later this month. Data for 2010-2020 are now available.

For lawyers, the 2010-2020 projection is even worse than 2008-2018, when the BLS predicted that the legal profession would add 98,500 new jobs and replace 141,900 lawyers who left the field by the end of the ten-year period. The new projection revises the number of lawyer jobs downward to 73,600 new jobs and 138,400 due to replacement. Note that the difference between the two sets of numbers places most of the loss on new lawyer positions. Incidentally, the BLS calculates 31,000 lost attorney jobs in 2009 and 2010. By comparison, dentists and doctors both saw job gains between 2008 and 2010, and both professions should encounter shortages by 2020 based on recent (albeit slightly older) graduation rates.

Alarmingly, extending the BLS’ 2018 projection to 2010, we find that there would’ve been 879,800 lawyer jobs, so the new projection sees a legal profession with 78,000 fewer positions than before, an 8.8 percent loss.

Here’s a chart to clarify.

Yes, the projections include self-employed lawyers, and yes, I still believe that the Current Population Survey greatly overstates the number of employed lawyers. That doesn’t make the employment projections correct, but I think they’re more accurate given the legal profession’s attrition rate relative to the number of J.D. holders.

And for those of you who think the Lesser Depression is the culprit, once again the BLS says that it’s projecting full employment in the target year:

“How do the BLS employment projections account for recessions?

The analysis underlying the BLS employment projections focuses on long-term structural change and growth and assumes a full employment economy in the target year. To the extent that recessions can cause long-term structural change, they may impact the projections. However, BLS does not project recessions.

How were the BLS 2010-20 employment projections affected by the recent recession?

The BLS employment projections are based on analysis of long-term structural changes to the economy, not short-term business cycle fluctuations. BLS does not attempt to project the peaks and troughs of business cycles, and the BLS projections model assumes a full employment economy in 2020, the target year. The 2010 (base year) employment for many industries still had not recovered to pre-recessionary levels when the 2010-20 projections were developed. This low employment, coupled with an expected return to full employment over the 10-year projections period, means faster growth rates and more numerous openings than might have been expected in these industries and their occupations had the recession not occurred.

Now, to ask, how does this look for new lawyers, to say nothing of the bottleneck that’s been swelling for the last decade at least?

Assuming graduation levels are flat, i.e. ~44,000 as they were in 2010, then we have 440,000 new law grads for 212,000 jobs, a projected employment rate of 48 percent.

If there are more grads as new law schools open or receive accreditation (Indiana Tech, North Texas, UMass, and others), then the ratio will be that much worse. If enrollments start dropping, more people will find work.

What does this mean precisely? The projection is over a long period of time, which can cause some unexpected distortions. For instance, law jobs that have high turnover rates will be held by multiple graduates who will be counted as employed in NALPian terms. If your garden variety new Biglaw associate position lasts exactly five years, then on average between two and three graduates will fill it every 10 years. Likewise, lawyer positions that have shorter life expectancies, especially solo practitioners, will have even higher turnover rates and will be filled by even more graduates. Moreover, as the BLS’ FAQ answer points out, as some industries recover to full employment they will refill lost positions and then add the new ones.

This is better news for law schools than for law students because it will skew graduation-plus-nine-month employment numbers upward, even though the medium- and long-term value of a law degree won’t be available to prospective law students. Remember, when two grads lacking other options form a law firm, they’re in “J.D. required” positions at 2-10-person law firms, even if the firm has a high chance of collapsing within a few years and the principals move on to more consistent work.

Law Graduate Overproduction by State (aka “The Holy Grail”)

[****THIS IS THE ORIGINAL POST ON LAW GRADUATE OVERPRODUCTION. THE PERMANENT VERSION OF THIS POST CAN BE FOUND ON THIS PAGE. PLEASE LINK TO THAT INSTEAD.****]

Choropleth Map of ABA Graduates per Job Opening by State (Indiana & Iowa are average)

This week’s breakthrough—discovering the national lawyer replacement projection data from 2008 to 2018 (240,400 gross jobs)—led to an even bigger breakthrough: lawyer replacement data by state over the same time period. I never dreamed I’d be able to find this when I started this blog.

Taking 2009 graduate numbers from the LSAC against state lawyer employment projections, we can compare lawyer overproduction state-by-state, telling us where there are too many law students and law schools. There are a few limitations with the data:

(1)  They necessarily exclude non-ABA law schools because no centralized authorities track them. This is unfortunate because non-ABA law schools account for 16.74% of all law schools (I continue to exclude correspondence schools and the JAG school). Mainly this means California’s values are extremely suspect.

(2)  The sum of the state replacement projections does not come close to the federal government’s projection. More below.

(3)  South Dakota does not provide any data, but it can’t have any more than 2,000 employed lawyers in 2008. My guess is its projections should be similar to North Dakota’s and Montana’s.

(4)  Overproduction assumes every graduate works in the state he or she attended law school. This obviously isn’t true. It’s also theoretically possible that some law schools deliberately “underbid” those in other states, i.e. cheaply producing better lawyers and exporting them to undercut local law schools (Widener’s Gambit?). I dismiss this hypothesis as dubious given tuition rates, and ultimately it doesn’t matter. The oversupply problem wouldn’t exist if there were clear attorney shortages to compensate for surplus production in other regions. The following results demonstrate only two states underproducing lawyers: Alaska and Nevada, but those two can’t possibly absorb the tens of thousands of excess law graduates produced per year elsewhere.

On the other hand, there are two pieces of good news:

(a)   the 2008 employment numbers are close enough between the states and the national government that they look like they include self-employed attorneys (solos and partners), and

(b)  The BLS assumes the economy will be at full employment by 2018, so as far as overproduction is concerned, we need not worry about today’s underemployed attorneys whom the BLS predicts will be employed doing something else (though that says nothing about their student debt and whether they’ll be gainfully employed at all).

Here’s a chart of the results, sorted by annual ABA graduate surplus because absolute overproduction more dramatically impacts the legal education system and people’s lives than relative overproduction.

The number in parentheses is the number of ABA-accredited law schools in that state as of 2011. * means the state has one or more non-ABA accredited law schools, and as always D.C. and Puerto Rico are counted as states for the purposes of this analysis.

#	STATE	Average Annual Job Openings	ABA Grads (2009)	Annual Surplus	Grads/ Opening
1	New York (15)	1,700	4,776	3,076	2.81
2	California (20)*	2,360	4,688	2,328	1.99
3	Massachusetts (7)*	430	2,316	1,886	5.39
4	Michigan (5)	470	2,016	1,546	4.29
5	Florida (11)	1,370	2,787	1,417	2.03
6	District of Columbia (6)	970	2,129	1,159	2.19
7	Pennsylvania (8)	640	1,715	1,075	2.68
8	Illinois (9)	1,130	2,166	1,036	1.92
9	Ohio (9)	460	1,495	1,035	3.25
10	Texas (9)	1,500	2,337	837	1.56
11	Virginia (8)	730	1,429	699	1.96
12	Missouri (4)	220	898	678	4.08
13	North Carolina (7)	450	1,055	605	2.34
14	Minnesota (4)	370	962	592	2.60
15	Louisiana (4)	250	811	561	3.24
16	Indiana (4)	340	828	488	2.44
17	Delaware (1)	60	537	477	8.95
18	Puerto Rico (3)	100	554	454	5.54
19	Oregon (3)	160	531	371	3.32
20	Connecticut (3)	190	531	341	2.79
21	Wisconsin (2)	190	487	297	2.56
22	Oklahoma (3)	210	494	284	2.35
23	Maryland (2)	270	548	278	2.03
24	Washington (3)	440	694	254	1.58
25	New Jersey (3)	540	791	251	1.46
26	Tennessee (3)*	210	445	235	2.12
27	South Carolina (2)	190	405	215	2.13
28	Kentucky (3)	180	385	205	2.14
29	Alabama (3)*	200	405	205	2.03
30	Iowa (2)	140	341	201	2.44
31	Mississippi (2)	150	347	197	2.31
32	Colorado (2)	330	518	188	1.57
33	Nebraska (2)	100	280	180	2.80
34	Arkansas (2)	110	249	139	2.26
35	Georgia (5)	760	896	136	1.18
36	Vermont (1)	60	191	131	3.18
37	Kansas (2)	170	297	127	1.75
38	Rhode Island (1)	80	184	104	2.30
39	Arizona (3)	280	378	98	1.35
40	New Hampshire (1)	50	144	94	2.88
41	West Virginia (1)	60	149	89	2.48
42	North Dakota (1)	30	83	53	2.77
43	Maine (1)	50	93	43	1.86
44	New Mexico (1)	70	112	42	1.60
45	Wyoming (1)	30	71	41	2.37
46	Hawaii (1)	60	88	28	1.47
47	Montana (1)	60	77	17	1.28
48	Idaho (1)	90	93	3	1.03
49	Utah (2)	280	281	1	1.00
50	Nevada (1)	150	140	-10	0.93
51	Alaska (0)	30	0	-30	0.00
52	South Dakota (1)	N/A	73	N/A	N/A
	USA (199)	24,040	44,000	19,960	1.83

You’ll note that the USA is supposed to add 24,040 lawyer jobs per year even though adding the individual state entries in the third column equals only 19,470, a deficit of 4,570 lawyer jobs per year that I highly doubt are all in South Dakota. The lower state sum means that the economy will gross only 194,700 lawyer jobs by 2018, and the national graduate to job ratio will be 2.2. The difference between the state sum and the national projection is important because the national number implies a 45.4% reduction in enrollments (~90 law schools) to stabilize the system while the former state number implies a larger 54.5% enrollment reduction equal to about 109 law schools. I don’t know what methodology labor departments use, but kudos go to Frank the Underemployed Professional of Fluster Cucked for subtracting ABA grads from forty years ago and coming up with a surplus similar to the BLS’s projection. For stats wonks, the median state surplus is 235, the mean 485.43, and the standard deviation 630.75.

As for the ratio of graduates to job openings, the median is 2.26, the mean 2.44, and the standard deviation 1.37. Only Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Alaska are below the first standard deviation; Michigan and Missouri are in the second standard deviation above the average; Massachusetts and Puerto Rico are in the third, and Delaware is in the fifth.

To spare you another table, here’s a chart listing the graduate to job ratio:

For giggles, here’s Widener’s (DE) most recent bar passage rates as reported to the ABA and LSAC:

Of the 193 graduates in 2009 who were employed nine months after graduation, less than one quarter (48) were employed in-state. Graduates flocked to twelve (!) other states, and a clear majority took the Pennsylvania bar. Widener didn’t even bother reporting how many people took the Delaware bar. So the 8.95 graduates to annual job openings ratio isn’t implausible at all.

And for an appendix, here’s a table of the states by employed lawyers, growth rates, net jobs between 2008 and 2018, and the average annual job openings.

STATE	Employed Lawyers(2008)	Projected LawyerEmployment(2018)	Growth Rate	Net Jobs(2018)	Average AnnualJobOpenings
Alabama (3)*	7,910	8,420	6.45%	510	200
Alaska (0)	1,330	1,270	-4.51%	-60	30
Arizona (3)	11,880	12,450	4.80%	570	280
Arkansas (2)	3,430	3,840	11.95%	410	110
California (20)*	94,900	100,800	6.22%	5,900	2,360
Colorado (2)	14,090	14,710	4.40%	620	330
Connecticut (3)	9,940	9,930	-0.10%	-10	190
Delaware (1)	2,900	3,000	3.45%	100	60
District of Columbia (6)	42,410	44,180	4.17%	1,770	970
Florida (11)	52,980	56,820	7.25%	3,840	1,370
Georgia (5)	20,900	24,560	17.51%	3,660	760
Hawaii (1)	2,970	2,950	-0.67%	-20	60
Idaho (1)	2,710	3,080	13.65%	370	90
Illinois (9)	38,080	42,290	11.06%	4,210	1,130
Indiana (4)	9,740	11,310	16.12%	1,570	340
Iowa (2)	4,340	4,910	13.13%	570	140
Kansas (2)	5,210	5,940	14.01%	730	170
Kentucky (3)	6,510	7,070	8.60%	560	180
Louisiana (4)	10,770	11,270	4.64%	500	250
Maine (1)	2,800	2,800	0.00%	0	50
Maryland (2)	14,300	13,570	-5.10%	-730	270
Massachusetts (7)*	21,600	21,900	1.39%	300	430
Michigan (5)	19,030	20,210	6.20%	1,180	470
Minnesota (4)	15,290	16,160	5.69%	870	370
Mississippi (2)	5,260	5,740	9.13%	480	150
Missouri (4)	11,520	11,410	-0.95%	-110	220
Montana (1)	1,870	2,070	10.70%	200	60
Nebraska (2)	3,400	3,750	10.29%	350	100
Nevada (1)	4,840	5,690	17.56%	850	150
New Hampshire (1)	2,350	2,400	2.13%	50	50
New Jersey (3)	28,650	28,650	0.00%	0	540
New Mexico (1)	3,550	3,580	0.85%	30	70
New York (15)	86,140	87,080	1.09%	940	1,700
North Carolina (7)	14,310	16,170	13.00%	1,860	450
North Dakota (1)	1,240	1,300	4.84%	60	30
Ohio (9)	19,860	20,750	4.48%	890	460
Oklahoma (3)	8,100	8,680	7.16%	580	210
Oregon (3)	4,980	5,610	12.65%	630	160
Pennsylvania (8)	28,400	29,400	3.52%	1,000	640
Puerto Rico (3)	4,180	4,350	4.07%	170	100
Rhode Island (1)	2,710	2,980	9.96%	270	80
South Carolina (2)	6,640	7,260	9.34%	620	190
South Dakota (1)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tennessee (3)*	8,720	9,160	5.05%	440	210
Texas (9)	44,680	51,360	14.95%	6,680	1,500
Utah (2)	7,080	8,580	21.19%	1,500	280
Vermont (1)	2,070	2,270	9.66%	200	60
Virginia (8)	19,780	23,390	18.25%	3,610	730
Washington (3)	14,840	16,320	9.97%	1,480	440
West Virginia (1)	2,940	2,970	1.02%	30	60
Wisconsin (2)	10,390	10,230	-1.54%	-160	190
Wyoming (1)	940	1,040	10.64%	100	30
—–	—–	—–	—–	—–	—–
TOTALS	765,460	815,630	6.55%	50,170	19,470
USA AVERAGE (199)	759,200	857,700	12.97%	98,500	24,040
***Difference***	-6,260	42,070		48,330	4,570

I include the “Difference” at the bottom to alert readers to the fact that while the 2008 employment numbers largely correspond between the states and the BLS (which I suspect excludes Puerto Rico), the 2018 employment projections simply do not line up. The federal government predicts 5.2% more employed attorneys than the states do, as well as a much faster growth rate. I’ll bet there’s a state government or two in there that’s not counting self-employed attorneys. If not, let’s hope the BLS is right and state governments aren’t because that’s 45,700 more graduates who will never see the inside of the legal profession.