It’s the time of year again in which I offer my projections of how much private law schools will charge full-time students five and ten years from now. This requires a note (or digression) on the methodology I use. Last year, I went to great lengths to justify my decision to use law schools’ tuition data in individual linear regressions for the projections. Two things are different this year:
(1) Because I scoured the Internet for older copies of the Official Guide, I now have more law school tuition data. My data go back to 1999 instead of 2004. The data alter the projections.
(2) I may’ve found a better projection methodology than individual linear regression.
The added data speak for themselves, but it occurred to me that another potentially effective way of projecting future law school tuition is by using the average annual growth rate.
This table ought to explain what I’m talking about:
| YEAR | AVERAGE TUITION (CURRENT $, EXCL. PUERTO RICO) | ANNUAL GROWTH RATE |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 20,980 | N/A |
| 2000 | 22,055 | 1,075 |
| 2001 | 23,194 | 1,139 |
| 2002 | 24,413 | 1,219 |
| 2003 | 25,968 | 1,555 |
| 2004 | 27,617 | 1,649 |
| 2005 | 29,229 | 1,612 |
| 2006 | 30,915 | 1,686 |
| 2007 | 32,841 | 1,926 |
| 2008 | 34,710 | 1,869 |
| 2009 | 36,510 | 1,800 |
| 2010 | 38,097 | 1,587 |
| 2011 | 39,697 | 1,600 |
| 2012 | 41,132 | 1,435 |
| MEAN AVERAGE | 1,550 | |
The questions are (a) is the average annual growth rate more accurate and precise than linear regression, and (b) if so, is it better to project each law school’s tuition individually or apply the overall average ($1,550) to each law school to snuff out outliers (Faulkner, I’m looking at you)?
On average the linear regression and average annual growth rate methodologies produce the same results.
So let’s take this to the individual law school level by asking, “Which methodology on average most accurately and precisely predicted law schools’ 2012 costs based on their 1999-2011 prices?”
Here are the average percent variances between the projected tuition prices and actual results (closer to zero is better) and the average deviations of the percent variances as a share of the average percent variance (smaller is more compact, which is better).
- Linear Regression: 0.2% (average variance); 1,072.5% (deviation share of average)
- Average Annual Growth Rate: 0.4%; 382.2%
- Average Annual Growth Rate (Individual): 0.5%; 308.7%
You can see why I’m dissatisfied with the linear regression methodology: great average, horrible distribution.
The two average annual growth rate methodologies raise a conundrum: Applying the average law school’s average annual growth rate to each school is more accurate (closer to zero) while calculating the average annual growth rate for each school individually is generally more precise (tighter deviation). Here’s what it would look like projected out to 2017.
- Linear Regression: 20.7%; 15.4%
- Average Annual Growth Rate: 19.3%; 12.8%
- Average Annual Growth Rate (Individual): 19.8%; 9.4%
I’m pleased enough with the individual average annual growth rate’s precision that I’m willing to adopt it for this year. The only other revision to this methodology I can imagine is weighting the average annual growth rate on recent tuition increases on the basis that future tuition increases are going to be more like recent ones than those of the mid-2000s. I’d like to wait and see how much (or little) tuition costs increased this year before running that experiment.
Because of the change, here are revisions to past projections according to the older data and newer methodology. Note, the revisions do not include more recent years’ data to keep them consistent with the older projections.
**********
| # | SCHOOL | OLD 2015-2016 PROJECTION | “REVISED” 2015-2016 PROJECTION | PERCENT CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Cornell | $64,779 | $62,787 | -3.1% |
| 2. | Yale | $62,707 | $61,568 | -1.8% |
| 3. | Columbia University | $61,212 | $60,362 | -1.4% |
| 4. | Northwestern University | $61,289 | $60,107 | -1.9% |
| 5. | University of Southern California | $58,890 | $58,380 | -0.9% |
| 6. | University of Pennsylvania | $60,075 | $58,040 | -3.4% |
| 7. | Duke University | $58,377 | $57,549 | -1.4% |
| 8. | New York University | $57,763 | $57,171 | -1.0% |
| 9. | Cardozo | $59,145 | $57,061 | -3.5% |
| 10. | New York Law School | $54,756 | $57,002 | 4.1% |
| 11. | Brooklyn | $58,035 | $56,862 | -2.0% |
| 12. | Fordham University | $58,181 | $56,222 | -3.4% |
| 13. | Seton Hall University | $58,402 | $56,123 | -3.9% |
| 14. | Harvard | $57,176 | $56,118 | -1.8% |
| 15. | Stanford | $56,643 | $55,773 | -1.5% |
| 16. | Syracuse University | $59,805 | $54,885 | -8.2% |
| 17. | Vanderbilt University | $57,775 | $54,695 | -5.3% |
| 18. | University of Chicago | $56,534 | $54,641 | -3.3% |
| 19. | St. John’s University | $56,837 | $54,407 | -4.3% |
| 20. | Georgetown | $56,048 | $53,924 | -3.8% |
| 21. | Baylor University | $54,570 | $53,596 | -1.8% |
| 22. | Washington University | $53,251 | $53,145 | -0.2% |
| 23. | Hofstra University | $54,157 | $52,939 | -2.2% |
| 24. | Quinnipiac University | $53,493 | $52,351 | -2.1% |
| 25. | George Washington University | $53,515 | $52,346 | -2.2% |
| 26. | American University | $53,798 | $52,262 | -2.9% |
| 27. | Vermont Law School | $56,767 | $52,195 | -8.1% |
| 28. | Emory University | $51,774 | $52,174 | 0.8% |
| 29. | Faulkner University | $54,005 | $51,045 | -5.5% |
| 30. | New England Law | Boston | $55,875 | $50,849 | -9.0% |
| 31. | Loyola Marymount | $52,806 | $50,499 | -4.4% |
| 32. | Tulane University | $52,385 | $50,260 | -4.1% |
| 33. | University of San Diego | $50,561 | $50,179 | -0.8% |
| 34. | Touro College | $54,990 | $50,115 | -8.9% |
| 35. | Suffolk University | $51,087 | $49,888 | -2.3% |
| 36. | Washington and Lee University | $52,621 | $49,831 | -5.3% |
| 37. | California Western | $50,357 | $49,594 | -1.5% |
| 38. | Case Western Reserve University | $50,308 | $49,296 | -2.0% |
| 39. | Union University | $49,738 | $49,209 | -1.1% |
| 40. | Pepperdine University | $50,839 | $49,096 | -3.4% |
| 41. | Notre Dame | $49,951 | $49,050 | -1.8% |
| 42. | Northeastern University | $49,903 | $49,041 | -1.7% |
| 43. | Southern Methodist University | $48,067 | $48,658 | 1.2% |
| 44. | Chapman University | $50,163 | $48,593 | -3.1% |
| 45. | Boston University | $48,945 | $48,451 | -1.0% |
| 46. | Phoenix School of Law | $48,923 | $48,363 | -1.1% |
| 47. | Illinois Institute of Technology | $50,227 | $48,348 | -3.7% |
| 48. | Boston College | $49,132 | $48,341 | -1.6% |
| 49. | University of the Pacific | $49,238 | $48,305 | -1.9% |
| 50. | University of La Verne | $47,927 | $48,027 | 0.2% |
| 51. | DePaul University | $49,919 | $47,764 | -4.3% |
| 52. | Charlotte | $47,774 | $47,545 | -0.5% |
| 53. | Pace University | $47,697 | $47,437 | -0.5% |
| 54. | Santa Clara University | $46,847 | $47,251 | 0.9% |
| 55. | Thomas Jefferson | $47,889 | $47,155 | -1.5% |
| 56. | Southwestern University | $47,599 | $46,846 | -1.6% |
| 57. | Catholic University of America | $48,049 | $46,776 | -2.6% |
| 58. | University of San Francisco | $47,176 | $46,275 | -1.9% |
| 59. | Golden Gate University | $48,712 | $46,218 | -5.1% |
| 60. | Roger Williams University | $49,400 | $46,128 | -6.6% |
| 61. | University of New Hampshire | $48,171 | $46,045 | -4.4% |
| 62. | University of Denver | $48,285 | $45,767 | -5.2% |
| 63. | Seattle University | $48,621 | $45,601 | -6.2% |
| 64. | University of St. Thomas | $46,689 | $45,342 | -2.9% |
| 65. | Ave Maria | $44,276 | $45,322 | 2.4% |
| 66. | Whittier Law School | $46,612 | $45,266 | -2.9% |
| 67. | Valparaiso University | $46,877 | $45,146 | -3.7% |
| 68. | Loyola University Chicago | $46,365 | $44,939 | -3.1% |
| 69. | University of Miami | $46,753 | $44,835 | -4.1% |
| 70. | John Marshall (Chicago) | $46,180 | $44,756 | -3.1% |
| 71. | Western New England College | $45,377 | $44,583 | -1.8% |
| 72. | Wake Forest University | $47,391 | $44,494 | -6.1% |
| 73. | Charleston Law School | $45,005 | $44,264 | -1.6% |
| 74. | Villanova University | $45,673 | $44,240 | -3.1% |
| 75. | Marquette University | $43,956 | $44,118 | 0.4% |
| 76. | Loyola University New Orleans | $42,930 | $43,789 | 2.0% |
| 77. | Mercer University | $44,740 | $43,170 | -3.5% |
| 78. | Saint Louis University | $42,797 | $42,450 | -0.8% |
| 79. | John Marshall (Atlanta) | $42,606 | $42,380 | -0.5% |
| 80. | Lewis & Clark College | $41,770 | $42,333 | 1.3% |
| 81. | Michigan State University | $43,816 | $42,316 | -3.4% |
| 82. | Florida Coastal | $44,046 | $42,154 | -4.3% |
| 83. | Oklahoma City University | $41,917 | $42,005 | 0.2% |
| 84. | Widener University | $41,463 | $41,863 | 1.0% |
| 85. | Widener University (Harrisburg) | $41,463 | $41,863 | 1.0% |
| 86. | Drexel University | $41,834 | $41,850 | 0.0% |
| 87. | Western State University | $43,868 | $41,667 | -5.0% |
| 88. | Elon University | $41,583 | $41,600 | 0.0% |
| 89. | University of Detroit | $40,977 | $41,555 | 1.4% |
| 90. | William Mitchell | $41,599 | $40,927 | -1.6% |
| 91. | Hamline | $41,694 | $40,785 | -2.2% |
| 92. | University of Richmond | $41,166 | $40,493 | -1.6% |
| 93. | University of Dayton | $42,273 | $39,924 | -5.6% |
| 94. | Duquesne University | $40,312 | $39,627 | -1.7% |
| 95. | Samford University | $41,242 | $39,600 | -4.0% |
| 96. | Capital University | $40,661 | $39,390 | -3.1% |
| 97. | Drake University | $41,060 | $39,279 | -4.3% |
| 98. | Stetson University | $40,097 | $39,002 | -2.7% |
| 99. | Barry University | $40,550 | $38,894 | -4.1% |
| 100. | Campbell University | $41,113 | $38,891 | -5.4% |
| 101. | Gonzaga University | $39,483 | $38,841 | -1.6% |
| 102. | Regent University | $38,493 | $38,476 | 0.0% |
| 103. | Nova Southeastern University | $40,421 | $38,351 | -5.1% |
| 104. | St. Thomas University | $40,096 | $38,233 | -4.6% |
| 105. | Creighton University | $39,334 | $37,873 | -3.7% |
| 106. | Willamette University | $36,449 | $36,925 | 1.3% |
| 107. | Ohio Northern University | $37,323 | $36,820 | -1.3% |
| 108. | Cooley | $37,096 | $36,680 | -1.1% |
| 109. | University of Tulsa | $36,763 | $36,344 | -1.1% |
| 110. | Liberty University | $35,424 | $35,414 | 0.0% |
| 111. | Appalachian School of Law | $35,004 | $35,061 | 0.2% |
| 112. | Mississippi College | $37,104 | $34,566 | -6.8% |
| 113. | St. Mary’s University | $35,931 | $33,633 | -6.4% |
| 114. | Texas Wesleyan University | $34,070 | $33,113 | -2.8% |
| 115. | Howard University | $34,453 | $32,645 | -5.2% |
| 116. | South Texas | $32,524 | $30,976 | -4.8% |
| 117. | Brigham Young University | $30,373 | $26,260 | -13.5% |
| AVERAGE | $47,598 | $46,341 | -2.6% | |
**********
| # | SCHOOL | OLD 2016-2017 PROJECTION | “REVISED” 2016-2017 PROJECTION | PERCENT CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Cornell | $66,800 | $64,800 | -3.0% |
| 2. | Yale | $64,600 | $63,200 | -2.2% |
| 3. | Columbia University | $63,800 | $63,000 | -1.3% |
| 4. | Northwestern University | $63,400 | $62,400 | -1.6% |
| 5. | University of Southern California | $61,000 | $60,600 | -0.7% |
| 6. | University of Pennsylvania | $62,200 | $60,600 | -2.6% |
| 7. | Duke University | $60,500 | $59,400 | -1.8% |
| 8. | New York University | $59,900 | $59,400 | -0.8% |
| 9. | Stanford | $59,400 | $58,700 | -1.2% |
| 10. | Brooklyn | $60,000 | $58,600 | -2.3% |
| 11. | Cardozo | $60,600 | $58,400 | -3.6% |
| 12. | Harvard | $59,100 | $58,400 | -1.2% |
| 13. | New York Law School | $56,000 | $58,000 | 3.6% |
| 14. | Seton Hall University | $59,900 | $57,700 | -3.7% |
| 15. | Fordham University | $59,600 | $57,500 | -3.5% |
| 16. | St. John’s University | $58,700 | $56,600 | -3.6% |
| 17. | Baylor University | $57,000 | $56,300 | -1.2% |
| 18. | University of Chicago | $58,000 | $56,200 | -3.1% |
| 19. | Georgetown | $57,400 | $55,700 | -3.0% |
| 20. | Vanderbilt University | $58,200 | $55,100 | -5.3% |
| 21. | Washington University | $55,200 | $55,100 | -0.2% |
| 22. | Hofstra University | $56,000 | $54,900 | -2.0% |
| 23. | Syracuse University | $59,000 | $54,800 | -7.1% |
| 24. | Quinnipiac University | $55,700 | $54,800 | -1.6% |
| 25. | George Washington University | $55,300 | $54,100 | -2.2% |
| 26. | Vermont Law School | $58,400 | $53,900 | -7.7% |
| 27. | Emory University | $53,600 | $53,900 | 0.6% |
| 28. | American University | $55,500 | $53,800 | -3.1% |
| 29. | Washington and Lee University | $54,200 | $51,900 | -4.2% |
| 30. | Notre Dame | $52,100 | $51,900 | -0.4% |
| 31. | Tulane University | $53,800 | $51,800 | -3.7% |
| 32. | California Western | $52,500 | $51,600 | -1.7% |
| 33. | Loyola Marymount | $53,800 | $51,500 | -4.3% |
| 34. | New England Law | Boston | $57,300 | $51,400 | -10.3% |
| 35. | Case Western Reserve University | $52,200 | $51,400 | -1.5% |
| 36. | Suffolk University | $52,300 | $51,300 | -1.9% |
| 37. | University of San Diego | $51,300 | $51,100 | -0.4% |
| 38. | Union University | $50,500 | $50,900 | 0.8% |
| 39. | Pepperdine University | $52,400 | $50,700 | -3.2% |
| 40. | University of La Verne | $50,500 | $50,700 | 0.4% |
| 41. | Southern Methodist University | $50,400 | $50,600 | 0.4% |
| 42. | Southwestern University | $50,700 | $50,600 | -0.2% |
| 43. | Touro College | $55,600 | $50,500 | -9.2% |
| 44. | Illinois Institute of Technology | $52,200 | $50,500 | -3.3% |
| 45. | Boston University | $50,400 | $50,400 | 0.0% |
| 46. | DePaul University | $52,100 | $50,400 | -3.3% |
| 47. | Chapman University | $51,800 | $50,300 | -2.9% |
| 48. | Northeastern University | $50,900 | $50,100 | -1.6% |
| 49. | Santa Clara University | $49,000 | $50,000 | 2.0% |
| 50. | Thomas Jefferson | $50,600 | $49,700 | -1.8% |
| 51. | University of the Pacific | $50,600 | $49,600 | -2.0% |
| 52. | University of New Hampshire | $50,400 | $49,500 | -1.8% |
| 53. | Faulkner University | $51,300 | $49,400 | -3.7% |
| 54. | Phoenix School of Law | $49,600 | $49,200 | -0.8% |
| 55. | Boston College | $49,900 | $49,000 | -1.8% |
| 56. | Catholic University of America | $50,200 | $49,000 | -2.4% |
| 57. | Golden Gate University | $50,500 | $48,600 | -3.8% |
| 58. | Charlotte | $48,500 | $48,500 | 0.0% |
| 59. | Pace University | $48,200 | $48,500 | 0.6% |
| 60. | University of San Francisco | $48,800 | $48,100 | -1.4% |
| 61. | Seattle University | $50,500 | $47,700 | -5.5% |
| 62. | Roger Williams University | $50,900 | $47,600 | -6.5% |
| 63. | University of Denver | $49,000 | $47,000 | -4.1% |
| 64. | University of Miami | $47,700 | $46,900 | -1.7% |
| 65. | Loyola University Chicago | $47,600 | $46,400 | -2.5% |
| 66. | Whittier Law School | $48,000 | $46,300 | -3.5% |
| 67. | Valparaiso University | $48,100 | $46,300 | -3.7% |
| 68. | Wake Forest University | $48,600 | $46,100 | -5.1% |
| 69. | Loyola University New Orleans | $45,500 | $46,100 | 1.3% |
| 70. | John Marshall (Chicago) | $47,400 | $45,900 | -3.2% |
| 71. | Western New England College | $46,600 | $45,900 | -1.5% |
| 72. | Marquette University | $46,300 | $45,300 | -2.2% |
| 73. | Villanova University | $46,800 | $45,200 | -3.4% |
| 74. | Charleston Law School | $45,500 | $44,900 | -1.3% |
| 75. | Florida Coastal | $46,300 | $44,700 | -3.5% |
| 76. | Ave Maria | $44,300 | $44,300 | 0.0% |
| 77. | Mercer University | $45,500 | $44,200 | -2.9% |
| 78. | John Marshall (Atlanta) | $44,000 | $44,200 | 0.5% |
| 79. | Michigan State University | $44,900 | $44,200 | -1.6% |
| 80. | Western State University | $46,200 | $44,100 | -4.5% |
| 81. | Elon University | $43,800 | $43,800 | 0.0% |
| 82. | University of Detroit | $43,400 | $43,800 | 0.9% |
| 83. | Drexel University | $43,600 | $43,700 | 0.2% |
| 84. | Lewis & Clark College | $44,000 | $43,600 | -0.9% |
| 85. | Oklahoma City University | $43,500 | $43,500 | 0.0% |
| 86. | Widener University | $43,000 | $43,500 | 1.2% |
| 87. | Widener University (Harrisburg) | $43,000 | $43,500 | 1.2% |
| 88. | William Mitchell | $43,400 | $43,000 | -0.9% |
| 89. | Saint Louis University | $43,400 | $42,900 | -1.2% |
| 90. | University of St. Thomas | $45,900 | $41,900 | -8.7% |
| 91. | University of Richmond | $42,500 | $41,900 | -1.4% |
| 92. | Hamline | $42,800 | $41,700 | -2.6% |
| 93. | Stetson University | $42,200 | $41,700 | -1.2% |
| 94. | Samford University | $43,000 | $41,500 | -3.5% |
| 95. | Cooley | $40,900 | $41,400 | 1.2% |
| 96. | Duquesne University | $41,800 | $41,000 | -1.9% |
| 97. | Drake University | $42,400 | $40,800 | -3.8% |
| 98. | Campbell University | $42,700 | $40,600 | -4.9% |
| 99. | Gonzaga University | $40,700 | $40,200 | -1.2% |
| 100. | St. Thomas University | $41,800 | $40,000 | -4.3% |
| 101. | Regent University | $39,900 | $39,800 | -0.3% |
| 102. | Barry University | $41,200 | $39,700 | -3.6% |
| 103. | Capital University | $40,900 | $39,600 | -3.2% |
| 104. | Creighton University | $40,500 | $38,900 | -4.0% |
| 105. | Nova Southeastern University | $40,800 | $38,800 | -4.9% |
| 106. | Ohio Northern University | $39,300 | $38,500 | -2.0% |
| 107. | Willamette University | $38,000 | $38,400 | 1.1% |
| 108. | University of Tulsa | $38,400 | $38,300 | -0.3% |
| 109. | Liberty University | $37,000 | $37,100 | 0.3% |
| 110. | Appalachian School of Law | $36,600 | $36,600 | 0.0% |
| 111. | University of Dayton | $40,100 | $36,500 | -9.0% |
| 112. | Howard University | $37,200 | $35,900 | -3.5% |
| 113. | Mississippi College | $38,200 | $35,600 | -6.8% |
| 114. | St. Mary’s University | $36,500 | $34,900 | -4.4% |
| 115. | Texas Wesleyan University | $35,500 | $34,600 | -2.5% |
| 116. | South Texas | $32,700 | $31,300 | -4.3% |
| 117. | Brigham Young University | $30,300 | $26,700 | -11.9% |
| AVERAGE | $49,060 | $47,890 | -2.4% | |
**********
| # | SCHOOL | OLD 2020-2021 PROJECTION | “REVISED” 2020-2021 PROJECTION | PERCENT CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Cornell | $78,171 | $74,425 | -4.8% |
| 2. | Yale | $74,664 | $72,386 | -3.1% |
| 3. | Faulkner University | $74,422 | $71,070 | -4.5% |
| 4. | Northwestern University | $72,772 | $70,499 | -3.1% |
| 5. | Columbia University | $72,217 | $70,295 | -2.7% |
| 6. | University of Southern California | $69,258 | $68,327 | -1.3% |
| 7. | University of Pennsylvania | $71,500 | $67,718 | -5.3% |
| 8. | New York Law School | $62,874 | $67,544 | 7.4% |
| 9. | Duke University | $69,277 | $67,376 | -2.7% |
| 10. | Cardozo | $71,194 | $67,329 | -5.4% |
| 11. | Seton Hall University | $71,224 | $67,189 | -5.7% |
| 12. | Brooklyn | $69,483 | $67,090 | -3.4% |
| 13. | Baylor University | $67,917 | $66,287 | -2.4% |
| 14. | New York University | $67,420 | $66,129 | -1.9% |
| 15. | Fordham University | $69,671 | $65,968 | -5.3% |
| 16. | Harvard | $67,478 | $65,621 | -2.8% |
| 17. | Stanford | $66,997 | $64,966 | -3.0% |
| 18. | Syracuse University | $72,514 | $64,644 | -10.9% |
| 19. | St. John’s University | $69,023 | $64,535 | -6.5% |
| 20. | Vanderbilt University | $69,425 | $64,103 | -7.7% |
| 21. | University of Chicago | $66,610 | $63,097 | -5.3% |
| 22. | Georgetown | $66,465 | $62,742 | -5.6% |
| 23. | Hofstra University | $64,564 | $62,218 | -3.6% |
| 24. | Vermont Law School | $70,956 | $62,170 | -12.4% |
| 25. | Washington University | $62,458 | $62,166 | -0.5% |
| 26. | Quinnipiac University | $64,180 | $61,963 | -3.5% |
| 27. | New England Law | Boston | $71,816 | $61,708 | -14.1% |
| 28. | American University | $64,136 | $61,065 | -4.8% |
| 29. | Emory University | $60,270 | $60,957 | 1.1% |
| 30. | George Washington University | $63,040 | $60,694 | -3.7% |
| 31. | Phoenix School of Law | $61,434 | $60,689 | -1.2% |
| 32. | Charlotte | $60,329 | $60,100 | -0.4% |
| 33. | Washington and Lee University | $64,703 | $59,724 | -7.7% |
| 34. | Touro College | $68,304 | $59,161 | -13.4% |
| 35. | Loyola Marymount | $63,314 | $59,158 | -6.6% |
| 36. | University of San Diego | $59,050 | $58,945 | -0.2% |
| 37. | Suffolk University | $60,632 | $58,656 | -3.3% |
| 38. | California Western | $60,239 | $58,407 | -3.0% |
| 39. | Tulane University | $62,331 | $58,377 | -6.3% |
| 40. | Union University | $58,208 | $58,297 | 0.2% |
| 41. | Case Western Reserve University | $59,904 | $58,033 | -3.1% |
| 42. | University of La Verne | $57,554 | $57,592 | 0.1% |
| 43. | Notre Dame | $58,830 | $57,294 | -2.6% |
| 44. | Southern Methodist University | $56,542 | $57,130 | 1.0% |
| 45. | Northeastern University | $58,339 | $57,017 | -2.3% |
| 46. | Chapman University | $59,996 | $57,012 | -5.0% |
| 47. | Pepperdine University | $60,389 | $56,983 | -5.6% |
| 48. | Illinois Institute of Technology | $60,441 | $56,645 | -6.3% |
| 49. | University of the Pacific | $58,304 | $56,621 | -2.9% |
| 50. | DePaul University | $60,300 | $56,177 | -6.8% |
| 51. | Boston University | $56,684 | $56,063 | -1.1% |
| 52. | Boston College | $57,056 | $55,778 | -2.2% |
| 53. | Thomas Jefferson | $57,603 | $55,609 | -3.5% |
| 54. | Santa Clara University | $54,186 | $55,142 | 1.8% |
| 55. | University of New Hampshire | $58,666 | $55,091 | -6.1% |
| 56. | Pace University | $54,708 | $55,079 | 0.7% |
| 57. | Southwestern University | $56,366 | $54,583 | -3.2% |
| 58. | University of Denver | $58,503 | $54,381 | -7.0% |
| 59. | University of St. Thomas | $57,086 | $54,372 | -4.8% |
| 60. | Roger Williams University | $60,584 | $54,246 | -10.5% |
| 61. | Ave Maria | $51,805 | $54,196 | 4.6% |
| 62. | Golden Gate University | $58,674 | $54,061 | -7.9% |
| 63. | Seattle University | $59,814 | $53,873 | -9.9% |
| 64. | University of San Francisco | $55,433 | $53,751 | -3.0% |
| 65. | Catholic University of America | $56,367 | $53,553 | -5.0% |
| 66. | Valparaiso University | $56,732 | $53,493 | -5.7% |
| 67. | Charleston Law School | $53,941 | $52,921 | -1.9% |
| 68. | John Marshall (Chicago) | $55,300 | $52,593 | -4.9% |
| 69. | Whittier Law School | $55,359 | $52,558 | -5.1% |
| 70. | Western New England College | $53,655 | $52,311 | -2.5% |
| 71. | Marquette University | $52,857 | $51,936 | -1.7% |
| 72. | John Marshall (Atlanta) | $51,838 | $51,795 | -0.1% |
| 73. | Loyola University Chicago | $54,424 | $51,791 | -4.8% |
| 74. | Villanova University | $54,587 | $51,790 | -5.1% |
| 75. | Wake Forest University | $57,068 | $51,757 | -9.3% |
| 76. | University of Miami | $54,486 | $51,646 | -5.2% |
| 77. | Loyola University New Orleans | $50,352 | $51,381 | 2.0% |
| 78. | Mercer University | $53,176 | $50,645 | -4.8% |
| 79. | Elon University | $50,583 | $50,600 | 0.0% |
| 80. | Michigan State University | $52,772 | $50,588 | -4.1% |
| 81. | Oklahoma City University | $49,991 | $50,085 | 0.2% |
| 82. | Florida Coastal | $53,485 | $49,596 | -7.3% |
| 83. | Lewis & Clark College | $49,494 | $49,569 | 0.2% |
| 84. | Saint Louis University | $49,806 | $49,425 | -0.8% |
| 85. | Drexel University | $49,234 | $49,250 | 0.0% |
| 86. | University of Detroit | $48,454 | $49,101 | 1.3% |
| 87. | Widener University | $48,097 | $48,835 | 1.5% |
| 88. | Widener University (Harrisburg) | $48,097 | $48,835 | 1.5% |
| 89. | Western State University | $52,802 | $48,145 | -8.8% |
| 90. | Hamline | $49,797 | $48,063 | -3.5% |
| 91. | William Mitchell | $49,384 | $48,055 | -2.7% |
| 92. | University of Richmond | $48,234 | $46,915 | -2.7% |
| 93. | Duquesne University | $48,300 | $46,878 | -2.9% |
| 94. | Capital University | $48,622 | $46,706 | -3.9% |
| 95. | University of Dayton | $50,003 | $46,173 | -7.7% |
| 96. | Samford University | $49,412 | $46,045 | -6.8% |
| 97. | Drake University | $49,423 | $46,045 | -6.8% |
| 98. | Regent University | $45,617 | $45,543 | -0.2% |
| 99. | Campbell University | $49,899 | $45,503 | -8.8% |
| 100. | Barry University | $47,945 | $45,138 | -5.9% |
| 101. | Gonzaga University | $46,040 | $44,907 | -2.5% |
| 102. | Stetson University | $46,954 | $44,784 | -4.6% |
| 103. | Creighton University | $47,273 | $44,361 | -6.2% |
| 104. | Nova Southeastern University | $47,726 | $44,095 | -7.6% |
| 105. | St. Thomas University | $47,314 | $43,384 | -8.3% |
| 106. | Willamette University | $42,033 | $42,721 | 1.6% |
| 107. | Cooley | $44,101 | $42,716 | -3.1% |
| 108. | Ohio Northern University | $44,057 | $42,377 | -3.8% |
| 109. | University of Tulsa | $43,209 | $42,368 | -1.9% |
| 110. | Appalachian School of Law | $41,789 | $41,797 | 0.0% |
| 111. | Liberty University | $41,753 | $41,708 | -0.1% |
| 112. | Mississippi College | $45,969 | $41,063 | -10.7% |
| 113. | St. Mary’s University | $42,865 | $39,105 | -8.8% |
| 114. | Howard University | $42,739 | $38,852 | -9.1% |
| 115. | Texas Wesleyan University | $40,806 | $38,785 | -5.0% |
| 116. | South Texas | $38,235 | $35,613 | -6.9% |
| 117. | Brigham Young University | $39,107 | $31,960 | -18.3% |
| AVERAGE | $56,922 | $54,584 | -4.0% | |
**********
| # | SCHOOL | OLD 2021-2022 PROJECTION | “REVISED” 2021-2022 PROJECTION | PERCENT CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Cornell | $79,800 | $76,300 | -4.4% |
| 2. | Yale | $76,300 | $73,800 | -3.3% |
| 3. | Columbia University | $75,000 | $73,200 | -2.4% |
| 4. | Northwestern University | $74,800 | $72,800 | -2.7% |
| 5. | University of Southern California | $71,300 | $70,600 | -1.0% |
| 6. | University of Pennsylvania | $73,500 | $70,400 | -4.2% |
| 7. | Duke University | $71,400 | $69,200 | -3.1% |
| 8. | Baylor University | $70,200 | $69,100 | -1.6% |
| 9. | Brooklyn | $71,200 | $68,700 | -3.5% |
| 10. | Seton Hall University | $72,200 | $68,600 | -5.0% |
| 11. | Cardozo | $72,200 | $68,500 | -5.1% |
| 12. | New York University | $69,700 | $68,500 | -1.7% |
| 13. | New York Law School | $63,900 | $68,200 | 6.7% |
| 14. | Stanford | $70,100 | $68,200 | -2.7% |
| 15. | Harvard | $69,400 | $68,000 | -2.0% |
| 16. | Fordham University | $70,700 | $67,100 | -5.1% |
| 17. | St. John’s University | $70,700 | $66,800 | -5.5% |
| 18. | Faulkner University | $67,800 | $66,600 | -1.8% |
| 19. | University of Chicago | $67,800 | $64,600 | -4.7% |
| 20. | Quinnipiac University | $66,500 | $64,600 | -2.9% |
| 21. | Georgetown | $67,500 | $64,500 | -4.4% |
| 22. | Hofstra University | $66,400 | $64,200 | -3.3% |
| 23. | Washington University | $64,500 | $64,200 | -0.5% |
| 24. | Vanderbilt University | $68,900 | $64,100 | -7.0% |
| 25. | Syracuse University | $70,100 | $64,000 | -8.7% |
| 26. | Vermont Law School | $72,000 | $63,800 | -11.4% |
| 27. | American University | $65,700 | $62,600 | -4.7% |
| 28. | Emory University | $62,100 | $62,600 | 0.8% |
| 29. | George Washington University | $64,800 | $62,500 | -3.5% |
| 30. | Washington and Lee University | $65,900 | $61,800 | -6.2% |
| 31. | New England Law | Boston | $72,300 | $61,700 | -14.7% |
| 32. | Phoenix School of Law | $60,900 | $60,600 | -0.5% |
| 33. | University of La Verne | $60,500 | $60,600 | 0.2% |
| 34. | Notre Dame | $61,200 | $60,600 | -1.0% |
| 35. | California Western | $62,500 | $60,500 | -3.2% |
| 36. | Case Western Reserve University | $61,700 | $60,300 | -2.3% |
| 37. | Charlotte | $59,800 | $60,100 | 0.5% |
| 38. | Loyola Marymount | $63,700 | $60,000 | -5.8% |
| 39. | Suffolk University | $61,600 | $60,000 | -2.6% |
| 40. | Union University | $58,500 | $59,900 | 2.4% |
| 41. | Tulane University | $63,400 | $59,800 | -5.7% |
| 42. | University of San Diego | $59,300 | $59,600 | 0.5% |
| 43. | Touro College | $67,900 | $59,200 | -12.8% |
| 44. | Southern Methodist University | $59,200 | $59,100 | -0.2% |
| 45. | DePaul University | $62,500 | $59,100 | -5.4% |
| 46. | University of New Hampshire | $61,000 | $59,100 | -3.1% |
| 47. | Southwestern University | $60,100 | $59,000 | -1.8% |
| 48. | Illinois Institute of Technology | $62,500 | $58,900 | -5.8% |
| 49. | Chapman University | $61,400 | $58,700 | -4.4% |
| 50. | Pepperdine University | $61,900 | $58,700 | -5.2% |
| 51. | Thomas Jefferson | $60,600 | $58,400 | -3.6% |
| 52. | Santa Clara University | $56,700 | $58,300 | 2.8% |
| 53. | Boston University | $58,100 | $58,100 | 0.0% |
| 54. | Northeastern University | $59,000 | $57,900 | -1.9% |
| 55. | University of the Pacific | $59,400 | $57,800 | -2.7% |
| 56. | Golden Gate University | $60,400 | $56,700 | -6.1% |
| 57. | Boston College | $57,400 | $56,200 | -2.1% |
| 58. | Seattle University | $61,600 | $56,100 | -8.9% |
| 59. | Catholic University of America | $58,800 | $56,100 | -4.6% |
| 60. | Pace University | $54,700 | $56,000 | 2.4% |
| 61. | Roger Williams University | $61,700 | $55,700 | -9.7% |
| 62. | University of San Francisco | $57,100 | $55,700 | -2.5% |
| 63. | University of Denver | $58,500 | $55,400 | -5.3% |
| 64. | Valparaiso University | $57,600 | $54,500 | -5.4% |
| 65. | University of Miami | $55,100 | $53,900 | -2.2% |
| 66. | Loyola University New Orleans | $53,400 | $53,900 | 0.9% |
| 67. | John Marshall (Chicago) | $56,200 | $53,600 | -4.6% |
| 68. | Western New England College | $54,700 | $53,600 | -2.0% |
| 69. | John Marshall (Atlanta) | $53,100 | $53,600 | 0.9% |
| 70. | Whittier Law School | $56,500 | $53,500 | -5.3% |
| 71. | Wake Forest University | $57,900 | $53,300 | -7.9% |
| 72. | Loyola University Chicago | $55,500 | $53,200 | -4.1% |
| 73. | Elon University | $53,000 | $53,100 | 0.2% |
| 74. | Charleston Law School | $53,600 | $53,000 | -1.1% |
| 75. | Marquette University | $55,600 | $53,000 | -4.7% |
| 76. | Villanova University | $55,400 | $52,500 | -5.2% |
| 77. | Michigan State University | $53,500 | $52,500 | -1.9% |
| 78. | Florida Coastal | $56,000 | $52,500 | -6.3% |
| 79. | Ave Maria | $51,100 | $52,200 | 2.2% |
| 80. | Oklahoma City University | $51,600 | $51,600 | 0.0% |
| 81. | University of Detroit | $51,300 | $51,600 | 0.6% |
| 82. | Mercer University | $53,400 | $51,500 | -3.6% |
| 83. | Drexel University | $51,200 | $51,300 | 0.2% |
| 84. | Western State University | $55,500 | $50,900 | -8.3% |
| 85. | Lewis & Clark College | $52,100 | $50,800 | -2.5% |
| 86. | Widener University | $49,800 | $50,500 | 1.4% |
| 87. | Widener University (Harrisburg) | $49,800 | $50,500 | 1.4% |
| 88. | William Mitchell | $51,400 | $50,400 | -1.9% |
| 89. | Saint Louis University | $49,900 | $49,500 | -0.8% |
| 90. | University of St. Thomas | $54,800 | $48,900 | -10.8% |
| 91. | Hamline | $50,600 | $48,800 | -3.6% |
| 92. | Cooley | $49,100 | $48,500 | -1.2% |
| 93. | University of Richmond | $49,500 | $48,300 | -2.4% |
| 94. | Duquesne University | $49,700 | $48,200 | -3.0% |
| 95. | Samford University | $51,200 | $48,100 | -6.1% |
| 96. | Stetson University | $49,400 | $47,900 | -3.0% |
| 97. | Drake University | $50,600 | $47,700 | -5.7% |
| 98. | Campbell University | $51,400 | $47,400 | -7.8% |
| 99. | Regent University | $47,000 | $46,900 | -0.2% |
| 100. | Capital University | $48,200 | $46,600 | -3.3% |
| 101. | Gonzaga University | $47,200 | $46,300 | -1.9% |
| 102. | Barry University | $48,200 | $45,800 | -5.0% |
| 103. | Creighton University | $48,200 | $45,300 | -6.0% |
| 104. | St. Thomas University | $49,100 | $45,300 | -7.7% |
| 105. | University of Tulsa | $45,100 | $44,500 | -1.3% |
| 106. | Nova Southeastern University | $47,500 | $44,300 | -6.7% |
| 107. | Willamette University | $43,800 | $44,300 | 1.1% |
| 108. | Ohio Northern University | $46,400 | $44,200 | -4.7% |
| 109. | Liberty University | $43,500 | $43,600 | 0.2% |
| 110. | Appalachian School of Law | $43,500 | $43,500 | 0.0% |
| 111. | Howard University | $46,000 | $42,800 | -7.0% |
| 112. | Mississippi College | $46,700 | $42,000 | -10.1% |
| 113. | University of Dayton | $45,900 | $41,300 | -10.0% |
| 114. | St. Mary’s University | $43,000 | $40,500 | -5.8% |
| 115. | Texas Wesleyan University | $42,300 | $40,300 | -4.7% |
| 116. | South Texas | $38,000 | $35,800 | -5.8% |
| 117. | Brigham Young University | $38,100 | $32,200 | -15.5% |
| AVERAGE | $58,175 | $56,084 | -3.6% | |
**********
You can see that in every table, the revised projections generally produce lower results, which is good because although I expect tuition to keep increasing, I can’t imagine it going up forever. Right?
As an editorial, I’m beginning to suspect that the projections are still too high. For example, I’m unsure if Cornell and Yale will crest $60,000 by 2015. We still have two years though, and they are getting close…
I’ll post the new tuition cost projections for 2017-2018 and 2022-2023 soon. The LSTB data page will be update at that time as well.
The Last Gen X American 
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