It’s the season for the LSTB’s perennial full-time private law school tuition projections. This is the third year I’ve made such projections, and I always try to improve the methodology to produce accurate and precise forecasts. The biggest changes this year are a large increase in source data—last year I scoured the Web for older copies of the ABA-LSAC Official Guide to the ABA Law Schools (Official Guide)—and I’ve improved the projections methodology.
In previous years, I forecasted future costs via linear regression based on law schools’ previous prices. I chose this model because it offered the lowest average costs, but it proved woefully imprecise. This year, I’ve changed to using law schools’ average annual (numeric) growth rates because it is both more accurate and precise than the linear regression methodology.
You can read about my test of the methodologies here.
As always, I exclude the two private law schools in Puerto Rico and Brigham Young’s tuition for LDS students. Unlike last year, though, I will not try to make projections for public-in-name-only law schools because there aren’t enough data to make reasonably accurate predictions. [Mini-update: The projections are in current dollars.]
Like last year, the “relative variance” column on the far right of the projections table is the percent difference between the law schools’ projected costs for 2012 (based on their 1999-2011 prices) and what they actually charged in 2012. The point is to provide an indicator for distinguishing between outliers and reasonably accurate projections. In 2012, the average private law school raised its price by less than in previous years, suggesting that going forward, costs will plateau. Here’s a chart of the distribution of tuition increases over the years.
Analysis of the Official Guide data also shows that the percent of full-time students paying full freight has dropped considerably in the last decade:
It might be the case that the real tuition today are less for the median student than a few years ago, but it’s still important for people to know that law schools will continue to depend on students who pay full freight. Because it’s harder for them to choose to drop out, 2Ls and 3Ls are especially likely to be asked to shoulder higher costs as their scholarships are rescinded.
The Official Guide data can be found on the LSTB data page, which I’ve updated to include the 1999-2000/2003-2004 academic years and inflation-adjusted tuition instead of percent increases. Okay, here are the projections. Enjoy.
| # | SCHOOL | TUITION: 2012-2013 | TUITION: 2017-2018 | TUITION: 2022-2023 | RELATIVE VARIANCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Cornell Law School (NY) | 55,301 | 66,744 | 78,188 | 0.4% |
| 2. | Columbia University (NY) | 55,488 | 65,840 | 76,191 | -1.0% |
| 3. | Yale Law School (CT) | 53,600 | 63,850 | 74,100 | 2.0% |
| 4. | Northwestern University (IL) | 53,468 | 63,706 | 73,943 | 1.0% |
| 5. | University of Pennsylvania (PA) | 53,138 | 63,164 | 73,190 | -0.8% |
| 6. | University of Southern California (CA) | 52,598 | 62,616 | 72,633 | 0.0% |
| 7. | Baylor University (TX) | 46,420 | 59,295 | 72,169 | -0.6% |
| 8. | Duke University (NC) | 51,662 | 61,492 | 71,323 | -0.2% |
| 9. | Harvard Law School (MA) | 50,880 | 60,560 | 70,241 | -0.3% |
| 10. | Yeshiva University (NY) | 50,046 | 59,984 | 69,923 | 0.7% |
| 11. | Brooklyn Law School (NY) | 50,001 | 59,949 | 69,898 | 0.9% |
| 12. | Stanford Law School (CA) | 50,802 | 60,204 | 69,605 | 0.5% |
| 13. | Seton Hall University (NJ) | 48,170 | 58,730 | 69,290 | 1.8% |
| 14. | New York Law School (NY) | 49,225 | 59,208 | 69,192 | 1.3% |
| 15. | New York University (NY) | 51,150 | 59,860 | 68,569 | 2.0% |
| 16. | University of Chicago (IL) | 50,727 | 59,629 | 68,531 | -2.5% |
| 17. | Fordham University (NY) | 49,526 | 58,946 | 68,365 | 0.8% |
| 18. | St. John’s University (NY) | 48,070 | 58,097 | 68,124 | 0.9% |
| 19. | Quinnipiac University (CT) | 47,076 | 56,876 | 66,677 | -0.2% |
| 20. | Georgetown University (DC) | 48,835 | 57,732 | 66,628 | -0.4% |
| 21. | Hofstra University (NY) | 47,660 | 57,050 | 66,440 | -0.4% |
| 22. | Washington University (MO) | 47,490 | 56,417 | 65,344 | 0.8% |
| 23. | Vermont Law School (VT) | 45,732 | 55,523 | 65,314 | 0.5% |
| 24. | George Washington University (DC) | 47,535 | 55,958 | 64,381 | -0.2% |
| 25. | American University (DC) | 46,794 | 55,526 | 64,259 | 0.1% |
| 26. | Faulkner University (AL) | 33,360 | 48,660 | 63,960 | 6.8% |
| 27. | Notre Dame (IN) | 45,980 | 54,947 | 63,913 | -2.0% |
| 28. | Vanderbilt University (TN) | 46,804 | 55,349 | 63,894 | 2.4% |
| 29. | Washington and Lee University (VA) | 43,462 | 53,189 | 62,917 | 1.1% |
| 30. | Syracuse University (NY) | 45,690 | 54,165 | 62,639 | 3.9% |
| 31. | Case Western Reserve University (OH) | 44,620 | 53,574 | 62,528 | -0.6% |
| 32. | Drexel University (PA) | 40,270 | 51,245 | 62,220 | -6.7% |
| 33. | Phoenix School of Law (AZ) | 39,533 | 50,426 | 61,319 | 1.3% |
| 34. | Southern Methodist University (TX) | 44,017 | 52,659 | 61,301 | -0.6% |
| 35. | Emory University (GA) | 45,098 | 53,185 | 61,273 | 3.9% |
| 36. | Pepperdine University (CA) | 44,980 | 53,103 | 61,226 | -1.2% |
| 37. | Suffolk University (MA) | 44,064 | 52,616 | 61,167 | 0.8% |
| 38. | California Western (CA) | 43,700 | 52,281 | 60,862 | 1.8% |
| 39. | Loyola Marymount (CA) | 44,230 | 52,476 | 60,722 | 1.2% |
| 40. | Southwestern University (CA) | 43,850 | 52,219 | 60,588 | 0.1% |
| 41. | University of San Diego (CA) | 43,860 | 52,218 | 60,575 | 1.0% |
| 42. | DePaul University (IL) | 43,220 | 51,828 | 60,435 | 0.5% |
| 43. | Chapman University (CA) | 43,536 | 51,954 | 60,371 | 0.1% |
| 44. | Santa Clara University (CA) | 43,680 | 52,018 | 60,357 | -0.6% |
| 45. | Charlotte School of Law (NC) | 38,606 | 49,404 | 60,201 | 1.6% |
| 46. | New England Law | Boston (MA) | 40,984 | 50,555 | 60,126 | 5.1% |
| 47. | Union University (NY) | 42,675 | 51,348 | 60,021 | 2.3% |
| 48. | University of New Hampshire (NH) | 41,190 | 50,455 | 59,721 | 1.7% |
| 49. | Touro College (NY) | 42,930 | 51,299 | 59,668 | 1.6% |
| 50. | Boston University (MA) | 44,168 | 51,890 | 59,613 | 0.1% |
| 51. | University of the Pacific (CA) | 43,045 | 51,257 | 59,469 | 0.0% |
| 52. | Thomas Jefferson School of Law (CA) | 42,000 | 50,423 | 58,846 | 1.8% |
| 53. | Tulane University (LA) | 43,684 | 51,144 | 58,604 | 3.7% |
| 54. | Loyola University New Orleans (LA) | 41,448 | 49,893 | 58,337 | -3.9% |
| 55. | University of Miami (FL) | 42,938 | 50,591 | 58,244 | -3.9% |
| 56. | Boston College (MA) | 43,511 | 50,806 | 58,100 | -0.6% |
| 57. | Golden Gate University (CA) | 42,010 | 50,045 | 58,079 | 0.3% |
| 58. | Northeastern University (MA) | 43,048 | 50,559 | 58,070 | 1.9% |
| 59. | University of San Francisco (CA) | 42,364 | 50,060 | 57,756 | -0.7% |
| 60. | Illinois Institute of Technology (IL) | 42,030 | 49,813 | 57,595 | 4.0% |
| 61. | University of La Verne (CA) | 40,732 | 49,000 | 57,269 | 4.9% |
| 62. | Catholic University of America (DC) | 43,245 | 50,227 | 57,209 | 0.4% |
| 63. | Pace University (NY) | 42,198 | 49,590 | 56,981 | 0.7% |
| 64. | Roger Williams University (RI) | 40,930 | 48,922 | 56,915 | 0.6% |
| 65. | University of St. Thomas (MN) | 39,244 | 47,895 | 56,546 | -7.5% |
| 66. | University of Denver (CO) | 39,840 | 48,163 | 56,486 | 0.9% |
| 67. | Seattle University (WA) | 39,884 | 47,865 | 55,846 | 2.7% |
| 68. | Florida Coastal (FL) | 39,370 | 47,458 | 55,547 | -2.2% |
| 69. | John Marshall (Chicago) (IL) | 39,884 | 47,655 | 55,426 | -0.4% |
| 70. | Western New England College (MA) | 39,574 | 47,160 | 54,746 | 0.5% |
| 71. | Valparaiso University (IN) | 38,852 | 46,704 | 54,555 | 2.2% |
| 72. | Whittier Law School (CA) | 40,260 | 47,308 | 54,357 | 0.8% |
| 73. | John Marshall (Atlanta) (GA) | 36,183 | 45,207 | 54,230 | 1.4% |
| 74. | University of Detroit Mercy (MI) | 38,180 | 46,168 | 54,157 | -1.5% |
| 75. | Loyola University Chicago (IL) | 40,582 | 47,340 | 54,099 | 0.7% |
| 76. | Western State University (CA) | 39,600 | 46,777 | 53,954 | -2.4% |
| 77. | Elon University (NC) | 36,100 | 44,975 | 53,850 | 0.8% |
| 78. | Marquette University (WI) | 38,690 | 46,225 | 53,759 | 1.1% |
| 79. | Villanova University (PA) | 38,910 | 46,152 | 53,395 | 0.9% |
| 80. | Charleston Law School (SC) | 37,874 | 45,536 | 53,197 | 1.4% |
| 81. | Wake Forest University (NC) | 39,190 | 46,090 | 52,990 | 2.6% |
| 82. | Lewis & Clark College (OR) | 38,180 | 45,488 | 52,795 | -0.9% |
| 83. | Widener University (DE) | 38,250 | 45,442 | 52,635 | -1.0% |
| 84. | Widener University (Harrisburg) (PA) | 38,250 | 45,442 | 52,635 | -1.0% |
| 85. | Thams M. Cooley Law School (MI) | 37,140 | 44,746 | 52,352 | -3.7% |
| 86. | Ave Maria School of Law (FL) | 37,270 | 44,780 | 52,290 | 2.0% |
| 87. | Mercer University (GA) | 37,260 | 44,187 | 51,114 | 2.9% |
| 88. | Hamline University (MN) | 36,396 | 43,666 | 50,937 | -1.2% |
| 89. | Michigan State University (MI) | 35,377 | 42,888 | 50,399 | 6.0% |
| 90. | Duquesne University (PA) | 35,354 | 42,635 | 49,916 | -0.4% |
| 91. | University of Richmond (VA) | 36,850 | 43,354 | 49,858 | -0.4% |
| 92. | William Mitchell College of Law (MN) | 36,020 | 42,905 | 49,789 | 3.2% |
| 93. | Saint Louis University (MO) | 36,885 | 43,329 | 49,773 | 1.7% |
| 94. | Samford University (AL) | 36,216 | 42,847 | 49,478 | -0.1% |
| 95. | Campbell University (NC) | 35,340 | 42,111 | 48,882 | -0.2% |
| 96. | Drake University (IA) | 35,282 | 42,071 | 48,860 | 0.3% |
| 97. | Regent University (VA) | 34,405 | 41,536 | 48,667 | -0.6% |
| 98. | Oklahoma City University (OK) | 34,290 | 41,267 | 48,245 | 8.1% |
| 99. | Stetson University (FL) | 36,168 | 42,194 | 48,220 | 1.5% |
| 100. | Gonzaga University (WA) | 35,460 | 41,625 | 47,791 | -0.4% |
| 101. | St. Thomas University (FL) | 36,226 | 41,794 | 47,361 | -1.5% |
| 102. | Willamette University (OR) | 34,690 | 40,963 | 47,236 | -2.8% |
| 103. | Capital University (OH) | 33,263 | 39,911 | 46,558 | 2.4% |
| 104. | Howard University (DC) | 31,640 | 38,892 | 46,144 | -3.6% |
| 105. | Creighton University (NE) | 33,490 | 39,788 | 46,087 | 0.9% |
| 106. | Barry University (FL) | 34,300 | 40,120 | 45,940 | 1.6% |
| 107. | Appalachian School of Law (VA) | 31,525 | 38,491 | 45,457 | -1.1% |
| 108. | Nova Southeastern University (FL) | 34,330 | 39,853 | 45,376 | 0.1% |
| 109. | Liberty University (VA) | 32,002 | 38,600 | 45,197 | -0.3% |
| 110. | Ohio Northern University (OH) | 33,684 | 39,316 | 44,949 | 0.6% |
| 111. | University of Dayton (OH) | 33,630 | 38,901 | 44,172 | -3.1% |
| 112. | University of Tulsa (OK) | 31,836 | 37,516 | 43,197 | 4.6% |
| 113. | Texas Wesleyan University (TX) | 30,580 | 36,588 | 42,595 | -2.1% |
| 114. | St. Mary’s University (TX) | 30,566 | 36,122 | 41,678 | -0.2% |
| 115. | Mississippi College (MS) | 29,450 | 35,478 | 41,505 | 3.3% |
| 116. | South Texas College of Law (TX) | 27,600 | 32,008 | 36,415 | 0.5% |
| 117. | Brigham Young University (UT) | 21,900 | 27,238 | 32,577 | 1.8% |
| MEDIAN | 40,930 | 49,813 | 57,756 | 0.5% | |
| MEAN AVERAGE | 41,132 | 49,240 | 57,349 | 0.5% | |
| AVG DEVIATION | 5,131 | 6,019 | 7,116 | 1.6% | |
Peace.
The Last Gen X American 
Third Tier Drake charged roughly $26,000 per year when I started in 2006. It’s sickening to see how these trash pits – public, private, for-profit and “non-profit” – are only concerned with making a financial killing.
Keep up the great work, Matt.
Exactly. Tuition has doubled in less than ten years when looking at 2005 levels. Each year in Matt’s charts, the average increase is, at a minimum, twice the level of inflation.
Who wouldn’t love a rate of return like that out in the actual, you know, “free market?” But why compete and assume risk, when you can just run a rent-seeking cartel and charge whatever you goddamn well please?
It’s good to be the king. Leave the peasant work to the peasants.
I keep thinking the value of a law degree will go up because tuition keeps going higher, but, instead, the value of low degree keeps going lower.
As someone with an insider’s perspective, I can say with confidence that the only direction our tuition is likely to go in the next five years is down (I can’t reliably prognosticate beyond five years). Demand for law school has fallen, so prices will fall as well–at least at schools that recognize how market forces work. While I appreciate the impressive level of work that Matt has done here, there is reason to believe that demand for law school during the five year window he considers will be much lower than during historic periods. Indeed, demand for law school has taken a considerably larger hit than demand for even legal services!
Anonymous, there have been applicant drops in the past without corresponding nominal tuition reductions. In fact, in 2012 mean and median private law school tuition increased more than in 2011 [adjusted for inflation] even though there were fewer applicants. Maybe it’s the calm before the storm, but I analyzed law school price downward-stickiness in my last Am Law Daily article.
I don’t doubt that the median law student at many schools pays less now than in previous years due to tuition-scholarship transfers, but that requires tuition increases. As I’ve stated in the past the core of every law school’s enrollment pool consists of students who will take out the maximum amount of unsubsidized Stafford loans ($20,500) and as much in Grad PLUS loans as the law school can charge. The workings of the student loan system have a significant effect on law school tuition; nationalizing graduate student lending via the Grad PLUS Loan Program and IBR essentially pre-bailed out law schools that would’ve seized up due to private lenders refusing to lend to their students.
Make no mistake: I won’t at all be surprised if my projections come out high in five years (or even two years for my 2015 projections), but I won’t believe substantial nominal tuition reductions until I see it.
There has to be some recalculations to this “bubble” list because some schools are actually lowering their tuition significantly. Roger Williams Law School lowered its 2014 tuition from 41,400 to 33,792 -(18%) in an announcement last January. The $33,792 is guaranteed for the three years of student’s attendance. This is not an endorsement to attend law school and the tuition “adjustment” reflects a marketing move to “hold the line” on attendance for R.W.U. Still, it’s “gutsy” and I hope many more law schools emulate this move. Let the bubble burst!