Stealth Layoffs Revealed?

I’ve been spending some time gathering law school faculty data from the Official Guide for future posts. I still have to Reinhart my Rogoffs, but I think the numbers I’ve entered are accurate. Here’s a quick-and-dirty history of full-time law school faculty since 1998.

Noticeably, the number has dropped in fall 2012.

I bring this up in part thanks to Paul Campos’ post on law school budget deficits. The question I asked myself is: To what extent are these deficits caused by shrinking class sizes and to what extent by far larger faculty than in the past? Put differently, if law schools pared down their headcounts to what they were in 1999, would they be able to continue to function? It may mean the difference between law school life and doom.

Behold:

This chart excludes the Puerto Rico law schools too, by the way, but it’s pretty clear that this year (2013) will see the first “real” full-time enrollment crunch relative to the 1999 base year. And yes, the average law school has 37 percent more full-time professors than in 1999; I’m astonished too.

And just which law schools appear to be shedding faculty?

Below is a table of the top 20 (’cause I know you lo~ve your lists) law schools by number of fewer full-time faculty. I have checked these numbers, so they are correct.

#	SCHOOL	FT FACULTY (FALL ’11)	FT FACULTY (FALL ’12)	CHANGE
1.	Indiana (Indianapolis)	42	8	-34
2.	Puerto Rico	23	4	-19
3.	New York Law School	70	57	-13
4.	St. John’s	52	39	-13
5.	La Verne	19	8	-11
6.	California-Hastings	67	57	-10
7.	Stetson	58	48	-10
8.	Catholic	52	43	-9
9.	Florida Coastal	69	60	-9
10.	Nevada	32	23	-9
11.	Hamline	34	26	-8
12.	San Diego	55	47	-8
13.	Seton Hall	49	41	-8
14.	Texas	83	75	-8
15.	Georgia State	50	43	-7
16.	New Hampshire	21	14	-7
17.	Pace	48	41	-7
18.	Roger Williams	27	20	-7
19.	Golden Gate	36	30	-6
20.	McGeorge	49	43	-6

Caveat #1: It’s pretty clear that some schools are really bad at reporting their faculty information to the ABA. I seriously doubt Indianapolis only had eight full-time professors on hand last fall. The number should probably be 38. Same goes for Puerto Rico. Both schools appeared to miss a digit when filling out the forms. La Verne, on the other hand, is more plausible. Recall that it had a severe enrollment crunch in 2012 because it’d lost its provisional accreditation the year before. Still, it’s pretty surprising that half the professors would be shown the door.

Caveat #2: The faculty numbers the schools report to the ABA tend to be somewhat volatile. It’s not uncommon for a school to report 5 more full-time professors one year and then lose them all the next. I doubt this is just sabbaticals, which are uncounted. [Mini-update: Some of these changes are also undoubtedly due to faculty moving between schools, which makes it harder to attribute declines (or increases) to law profs being shown the door.]

Bear these two points in mind as you gaze upon the table of law schools that added full-time professors to the rolls in fall 2012.

#	SCHOOL	FT FACULTY (FALL ’11)	FT FACULTY (FALL ’12)	CHANGE
1.	Charlotte	39	62	23
2.	Columbia	127	142	15
3.	South Dakota	1	15	14
4.	Denver	62	73	11
5.	Mississippi	17	28	11
6.	Georgetown	130	140	10
7.	Yale	61	71	10
8.	Harvard	116	125	9
9.	John Marshall (Atlanta)	40	49	9
10.	Phoenix	32	41	9
11.	Northwestern	76	84	8
12.	Pontifical Catholic	21	29	8
13.	Ohio State	38	45	7
14.	City University	34	39	5
15.	North Carolina	44	49	5
16.	Notre Dame	49	54	5
17.	Pepperdine	35	40	5
18.	Akron	26	30	4
19.	California-Los Angeles	72	76	4
20.	Duke	55	59	4

Again, there is no way South Dakota taught all its fall courses law-prof-of-one-style. I’m also dubious that even Columbia hired 15 more full-time professors. Then again, one-fourth of the schools here are in U.S. News‘ T-14, plus UCLA. Three are for-profits, though one for-profit was in the bottom-20 list.

Caveat #3: This is only full-time professors. There’s still a surge in part-timers and other types that I haven’t documented here.

Ultimately, law schools’ budgets are being pulled down by both filled offices and empty seats, but so far the data say it’s more the former than the latter.